Our NFL Divisional Previews continue to the Atlantic Coast as we discuss the AFC East. While this division is the most likely to already know their winner, the other three spots could be very much up for grabs.
Check out our other division previews as well:
Find the best futures odds and more at our favorite online sportsbooks.
AFC East Divisional History
Josh Allen and the Bills need to find some postseason success this year
Past 10 AFC East Division Champions
- 2024: Buffalo Bills (13-4)
- 2023: Buffalo Bills (11-6)
- 2022: Buffalo Bills (13-3)
- 2021: Buffalo Bills (11-6)
- 2020: Buffalo Bills (13-3)
- 2019: New England Patriots (12-4)
- 2018: New England Patriots (11-5) *Won Super Bowl LIII vs. Rams*
- 2017: New England Patriots (13-3) *Lost Super Bowl LII vs. Eagles*
- 2016: New England Patriots (14-2) *Won Super Bowl LI vs. Falcons*
- 2015: New England Patriots (12-4)
One thing is clear, the Patriots used to have a stranglehold on the division, and now it’s the Bills. Buffalo has claimed the top of the AFC East for the past five seasons, with the Patriots holding that title for 11 consecutive years prior. However, unlike the Patriots, the Bills have not yet been to a Super Bowl, let alone winning multiple in the past decade.
Looking back in the history books, the last time the Miami Dolphins won the division was in 2008, and the New York Jets haven’t won since 2002. And based on the odds, nothing is changing this season.
AFC East Betting Odds
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Odds to Win Super Bowl LX
- Buffalo Bills +600
- New England Patriots +6600
- Miami Dolphins +6600
- New York Jets +15000
The Bills are tied with the Baltimore Ravens as the betting favorites to win this year’s Super Bowl. But can anyone dethrone them from the division?
Odds to Win AFC East Division
- Buffalo Bills -285
- New England Patriots +500
- Miami Dolphins +650
- New York Jets +1400
I am writing this article the morning of new Jets QB Justin Fields being carted off the field, with an apparent toe injury. Clearly, I am not an expert, but I think he will be fine. However, this is the Bills division to lose, and no one is stopping them this season.
Drake Maye has some new weapons for New England this season
Team Win Totals
Buffalo Bills
- Over 11.5 (-180)
- Under 11.5 (+150)
Miami Dolphins
- Over 8.5 (+155)
- Under 8.5 (-190)
New England Patriots
- Over 8.5 (+105)
- Under 8.5 (-135)
New York Jets
- Over 5.5 (-160)
- Under 5.5 (+130)
Nine wins seems like a lot for both the Dolphins and Patriots, but they’ll get four games against the other and the Jets, boosting their totals a bit. However, those bottom three teams could all beat up on each other, making it harder for each of them to sneak over their total.
The Bills should be well on their way to another 12-win season, but you can miss me with that juice.
Garrett Wilson reunites with his college QB as Justin Field joins the Jets
AFC East Team Breakdown
Buffalo Bills
It’s the Bills. Josh Allen has proven he can be the guy that gets your team wins, regardless of his supporting staff. That is… up until the regular season ends.
A WR room of Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, and Joshua Palmer surround Allen and RB James Cook and TE Dalton Kincaid. Defensively, this team added DE Joey Bosa to add a pass-rushing presence, but the biggest thing the Bills have going for them is their division.
They get six games against the Pats, Jets, and Dolphins, slotting them for six easy wins once again. Buffalo also has the benefit of hosting all of their toughest opponents as the Ravens, Bengals, Chiefs, Buccaneers, and Eagles all have to go to Orchard Park.
The Bills are well on their way to the top of this AFC East, and likely the top of the conference with their toughest road matchup being at Houston on three days rest in Week 12.
Miami Dolphins
I have little faith in Miami this season, and their under 8.5 wins seems too easy. Of course it is nearly -200, but if you can find an under 7.5 out there for reasonable juice, I don’t hate it.
Sure, you have the skill players of De’Von Achane, Tyreek Hill, and Jaylen Waddle. But you just let Jonnu Smith walk, so your TE position is very much in question. Smith and CB Jalen Ramsey were traded to the Pittsburgh Steelers in return for FS Minkah Fitzpatrick. The Dolphins’ defense certainly doesn’t move the needle for me, and I have my doubts in their offensive performance as well.
At best, I see the Dolphins at 3-8 when they hit their bye in Week 12, and after that I only see one, maybe two more wins, well under their number. Sure they can beat a New Orleans Saints team coming to town, but assuming they split with the Jets and Pats (home team wins), they’ll drop potentially their last five games.
I don’t see eight wins on the Miami Dolphins schedule this season
New England Patriots
Since the departure of Tom Brady, the Patriots have not been on top of the AFC East, and they’ve finished dead last the past two seasons. But things could be different this year. Drake Maye got a huge new target in WR Stefon Diggs and some major protection for the foreseeable future in LT Will Campbell.
Anything will be an improvement for an offense that was third-worst in points scored last season, and dead last in passing yards per game. The Pats have a relatively easy schedule, with games at Baltimore, at Cincinnati, and at Tampa Bay being their toughest road contests outside of Buffalo.
They get to host Carolina, Cleveland, and the New York Giants, while facing Tennessee and New Orleans on the road, all of which are games they could win.
New York Jets
Last but not least, the J-E-T-S Jets Jets JETS!!!
Justin Fields is going to be okay. Everyone take a deep breath, it’s just his toe. But what else do they have going for them? They have talented young skill players, but a very bad offensive line, and a defense that can only do so much.
Looking at their schedule, the Jets likely start 0-3, and potentially could be just 2-6 at best when they get to their bye in Week 9. They definitely have an easier second half of the season, excluding going to Baltimore and Buffalo.
The Jets get to host Carolina, Cleveland, Miami, and New England late in the season, and could also pick up some wins on the road against the Pats, Dolphins, Jaguars, and Saints. Over 5.5 wins could be very, very sweaty, especially after today’s scare, the Jets could be just a couple players away from another long season.
The Bills will be on top of this division looking down on the other three teams fighting for second place. I do not see anyone other than Buffalo making the playoffs in a tough conference.
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