Minnesota Vikings: We head to the Land of 10,000 Lakes to break down a team facing a major question this season. Can quarterback J.J. McCarthy become the Vikings’ next franchise leader? Are oddsmakers giving him too much credit, or not nearly enough? Let’s dive into my season preview and best bet on the Minnesota Vikings win total.
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2025 Minnesota Vikings Future Odds
Is tight end T.J. Hockenson set for another explosive season with a new quarterback in the mix?
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Super Bowl Winner: 25/1
NFC Winner: 10/1
NFC North Winner: +325
Win Total: Over 8.5 (-165) | Under 8.5 (+125)
Minnesota Vikings 2025 Win Total Analysis
Last year, Sam Darnold revived his career and led the Vikings to a 14-3 record with a second-place finish in the division. But with Darnold now in Seattle, it’s up to first-round pick J.J. McCarthy to see if he can deliver the same kind of instant impact.
It wasn’t just the surprise play at quarterback that carried Minnesota – Brian Flores’ defense was a force. Since taking over as coordinator, he’s molded the unit into one of the league’s best, finishing second in EPA per play and fifth in success rate allowed. With that side of the ball set up for another strong season, the focus shifts squarely to McCarthy’s ability to keep the offense rolling.
Offensive Concerns
While the Vikings defense may perform well enough to keep them competitive in most games, their offense leaves room for doubt.
McCarthy remains an unproven commodity at the NFL level. Despite being the 10th overall pick in the 2024 draft, doubts linger about his ability to develop into a true franchise quarterback. Those concerns are only heightened by the fact he’s coming off a torn meniscus in his right knee, which sidelined him for his entire rookie year.
To make matters worse, McCarthy will be without top receiver Jordan Addison for the first three games of the season due to a suspension stemming from a DUI citation. It may be a short absence, but those early weeks are critical for McCarthy’s confidence and development – and losing a key weapon right away won’t make his transition any easier.
Bullish Market
As noted, their win total is listed around 8.5 with plus money toward the under. I believe that’s a strong look. However, several shops have their win total as high as 9.5 with only -125 odds to the under. That number feels way too high for a team led by an unproven quarterback coming off a major injury.
At most, I have Minnesota pegged for eight wins, but I love the security of grabbing nine with just 25 cents of vig attached.
Let’s take a look at their schedule:
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Week 1 — @ Chicago
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Week 2 — vs Atlanta
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Week 3 — vs Cincinnati
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Week 4 — vs Pittsburgh*
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Week 5 — vs Cleveland*
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Week 6 — BYE WEEK
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Week 7 — vs Philadelphia
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Week 8 — @ Los Angeles
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Week 9 — vs Detroit
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Week 10 — vs Baltimore
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Week 11 — vs Chicago
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Week 12 — @ Green Bay
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Week 13 — @ Seattle
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Week 14 — vs Washington
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Week 15 — @ Dallas
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Week 16 — vs New York
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Week 17 — vs Detroit
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Week 18 — @ Green Bay
* Neutral site games.
McCarthy’s NFL debut comes in primetime on the road against a division rival. From there, he’ll also face back-to-back overseas games before Minnesota even gets to its Week 6 bye.
The rest of the schedule doesn’t do him many favors either – hosting the defending champs, traveling to Los Angeles to face Justin Herbert, squaring off with Lamar Jackson and the Ravens, plus road trips to Seattle for the Sam Darnold revenge game and to Dallas to battle the Cowboys.
There’s simply too much optimism around McCarthy. I’ve got the Vikings pegged in the six-to-eight win range. Kevin O’Connell is an excellent coach, and having Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson certainly helps, but it will take time for McCarthy to adjust at this level. If he proves me wrong and takes them to double-digit wins, good for him – but I’m not buying the hype.
Best Bet: Vikings Under 9.5 Wins (-125)
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