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The arrival of Week 18 of the 2023 NFL season means time is running out when it comes to each of the individual award races, including Coach of the Year. This year’s COTY race has taken plenty of twists and turns throughout the campaign, leaving time to tell who’ll be declared the No. 1 bench boss in the league once the smoke clears.
So, how are the 2023-24 NFL Coach of the Year shaping up with only one regular-season week remaining? Let’s dive into the latest odds to see who’s the most likely candidate to win.
2023 NFL Coach of the Year Odds Ahead of Week 18
NFL COTY odds are courtesy of Bovada as of Wednesday, Jan. 3 at 11:10 a.m. ET.
- Kevin Stefanski, CLE (-900)
- DeMeco Ryans, HOU (+950)
- Shane Steichen, IND (+950)
- Dan Campbell, DET (+1800)
- John Harbaugh, BAL (+1800)
- Kyle Shanahan, SF (+3300)
- Sean McVay, LAR (+3300)
Stefanski Leads NFL Coach of the Year Race Over Ryans, Steichen
While nothing is guaranteed just yet, it’s evident that oddsmakers have a clear-cut favorite when it comes to being named the 2023 NFL Coach of the Year.
The Cleveland Browns’ Kevin Stefanski is currently Bovada’s -900 odds-on favorite to be named the NFL’s coach of the year. For reference, his odds carry an implied probability of 90.0%, meaning the sportsbook views this situation as a one-man award race.
Nevertheless, it isn’t hard to see why Stefanski is such a heavy favorite. After missing the playoffs in 2021 and 2022, the Browns looked like they were on their way to another postseason absence when starting QB Deshaun Watson and No. 1 RB Nick Chubb were dealt season-ending injuries.
But instead of rolling over and giving in, Stefanski rallied the troops and got the team back on track. The Browns now enter Week 18 with an 11-5 record while ranking ninth in points scored, 11th in points allowed, and eighth in average scoring margin. Additionally, Cleveland’s 11 victories are one away from tying the most in the team’s NFL history.
Considering how Stefanski had to deal with P.J. Walker and Dorian Thompson-Robinson as the team’s QB options until Joe Flacco’s arrival, the 41-year-old bench boss deserves all the praise for getting the Browns into the playoffs.
The Indianapolis Colts’ Shane Steichen and Houston Texans’ DeMeco Ryans are tied for the second-best COTY odds at +950, highlighting just how far ahead Stefanski is in this race.
Having said that, the aforementioned duo does deserve praise, too. Despite losing starting QB Anthony Richardson to a season-ending injury as well, Steichen will have Indianapolis in the playoffs with a win over Houston in Week 18. Furthermore, he has the Colts averaging 23.6 PPG (10th) after being tied for the second-worst offense in 2022 (17.0 PPG).
Meanwhile, Ryans can also get the Texans back to the postseason if they can beat the Colts this weekend. The first-year head coach has already led Houston to nine wins after only winning 11 in the three previous seasons combined and has been a key factor behind the unlocking rookie QB C.J. Stroud’s potential.
Perhaps Steichen and Ryans can boost their odds with a win over the other’s team in Week 18, however, it looks like that might not be enough to dethrone Stefanski as the odds-on favorite.
NFL Coach of the Year Dark Horses
Dan Campbell, DET (+1800)
John Harbaugh, BAL (+1800)
Despite coaching two of the best teams this season, Dan Campbell (DET) and John Harbaugh (BAL) are both +1800 longshots to be named 2023 NFL Coach of the Year.
The award tends to go to the coach whose team makes the biggest leap, which is why neither of these candidates possesses favorable odds. While the Lions’ 11 victories are their most since 2014, it’s only a two-win improvement over the previous season. The fact that Detroit is also 3-3 SU in its last six games also likely hurt Campbell’s odds.
The Ravens, meanwhile, are also only at three more victories than what they finished with in 2022. Harbaugh has done a great job at ensuring that Baltimore is a Super Bowl LVIII threat, but the improvements from last season to the current one aren’t big enough to win this award.
Kyle Shanahan (+3300)
Sean McVay (+3300)
While Campbell and Harbaugh’s odds aren’t exactly the best, Kyle Shanahan (SF) and Sean McVay’s (LAR) odds are even more unfavorable at +3300.
It isn’t too surprising that Shanahan’s odds are as long as they are. While the 49ers will likely be the NFC’s No. 1 seed this postseason, they’ll either tie or fall short of the 13 victories they had last campaign. Had San Francisco won 14 or 15 games this season, Shanahan would likely be much higher on the list.
As for McVay, I’m somewhat surprised that his odds aren’t much better. The Rams are in salary cap hell and were expected to be among one of the worst teams after winning just five games last season, but somehow McVay has coached them to nine victories and a playoff berth. He’s also a big reason why Puka Nacua has been one of the NFL’s best wideouts despite being a fifth-round rookie.
I could see McVay’s odds boosting a lot with a Week 18 win, but it likely won’t be good enough to overcome Stefanski.
NFL Coach of the Year FAQ
Who was named 2022 NFL COTY?
- Brian Daboll was named NFL Coach of the Year in 2022 after leading the New York Giants to a 9-7-1 record.
Who has won the most COTY awards in NFL history?
- Hall of Famer Don Shula holds the record for most NFL Coach of the Year wins at four, having won three with the Baltimore Colts (1964, 1967, 1968) and one with the Miami Dolphins (1972).
When was the last time the NFL COTY won the Super Bowl?
- Since 1966, seven coaches have been named COTY while winning the Super Bowl in the same season. However, nobody has accomplished the feat since Bill Belichick did so with the New England Patriots in 2003.
Where can I bet on 2023 NFL COTY odds?
- Most reputable sportsbooks — including Bovada — offer 2023 NFL Coach of the Year odds. Check out some of them below:
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