Last season, both Vanderbilt and South Carolina exceeded preseason expectations after being picked to occupy the lower rungs of the new 16-team SEC. Both the Commodores and Gamecocks have aspirations for even more this season, and after kicking off their 2025 campaigns with a couple of non-conference victories, the two teams will clash in Columbia to open SEC play on Saturday. The Vanderbilt vs. South Carolina matchup is set for 7:45 p.m. ET, and it will air on SEC Network.
South Carolina, who is ranked 11th in this week’s AP poll, followed a season-opening win over Virginia Tech in Atlanta with a 38-10 victory over South Carolina State last week.
Defense has been the biggest standout for South Carolina thus far. The Gamecocks have allowed only 21 points and recorded six sacks and three takeaways in two games.
Like the Gamecocks, the Commodores have a victory over the Hokies. They opened the season by throttling Charleston Southern 45-3, then went on the road to Blacksburg and silenced Lane Stadium in the second half in a highly impressive 44-20 win.
Virginia Tech jumped out to a 20-10 halftime lead, but a field goal on the last play of the first half proved to be the Hokies’ final points, as Vanderbilt pitched a 34-0 shutout in the second half.
Vandy’s offense has been rolling thus far. It tallied 481 yards against Charleston Southern and 490 yards against Virginia Tech and scored six touchdowns in both games.
Can Diego Pavia and the ‘Dores keep dazzling and cause an upset in Columbia? Read on for our Vanderbilt vs. South Carolina prediction and best bets, and get the best value odds from BetOnline and other top online sportsbooks so you don’t have to do the line shopping yourself.
Vanderbilt vs. South Carolina Prediction and Best Bets
Prediction for Vanderbilt vs. South Carolina: South Carolina to win
Much was expected of QB LaNorris Sellers and South Carolina’s offense this season and still is ahead of the matchup vs. Vanderbilt.
Entering Week 3, Sellers is still +1400 to win the Heisman Trophy at BetOnline, which puts him sixth behind John Mateer, Carson Beck, Garrett Nussmeier, Dante Moore, and Arch Manning.
So, oddsmakers haven’t put significant stock in Sellers’ pedestrian numbers to this point. Through two games, he has completed 23 of 38 passes for 337 yards and two touchdowns and run for 48 yards on 21 attempts.
It doesn’t help that the ground game overall averaged just 3.3 yards per attempt against Virginia Tech and South Carolina State.
Is it too early for concern? It isn’t when conference play starts so early. At some point, the South Carolina offense is going to have to win games, and that time may be coming as soon as Saturday night vs. Vanderbilt.
Dusting Charleston Southern does not move the needle. But going into Lane Stadium and scoring touchdowns on five consecutive second-half possessions does, even with Virginia Tech potentially in the market for a new coach soon.
That is why the Vanderbilt vs. South Carolina spread sits at -3.5, even with the highly-ranked Gamecocks at home.
Diego Pavia and the Commodores are not just plucky pests. They are very good. Expect at least two of the three presently-ranked teams (LSU, Auburn, and Missouri) that must visit Nashville this season to leave with a loss.
And there’s a very real possibility that they leave disappointment in their wake in Columbia, just as they did in Blacksburg.
That said, I do think this will be the point that South Carolina’s offense wakes from its slumber and secures a hard-fought win.
Vanderbilt vs. South Carolina Best Bets
1) South Carolina -3.5 (-105 at Bovada)
To this point of the college football season, a little more than a tenth of the games involving an FBS team have been decided by three or fewer points.
Also, only five of South Carolina’s 31 wins (16.1%) under Shane Beamer have come by three or fewer points. That includes just two of 15 (13.3%) SEC wins.
Obviously, surface-level numbers shouldn’t determine your betting choices with college football picks, NFL picks, or any other sport or event.
But if South Carolina wins vs. Vanderbilt, it will likely be by four or more points.
And if you think they will win but don’t want the hook to potentially burn you, you can buy the half-point and still get decent odds on -3. And given where these odds are for -3.5, the number may well move to -3 before you have to buy the half-point.
2) Vanderbilt/South Carolina Over 48 (-122 at BetOnline)
This is a full point lower than the listed total at some other sports betting sites. Gimme, gimme, gimme.
3) Diego Pavia Over 188.5 Passing Yards (-115 at Lucky Rebel)
Pavia went over this number against both Charleston Southern (20 for 25, 275 yards, 3 TD) and Virginia Tech (12 for 18, 193 yards, 2 TD, INT).
Even if he isn’t as sharp as he was in the first two games, look for him to put the ball in the air a decent amount, especially if the Commodores have to play catch-up.
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