#16 Vanderbilt vs. #10 Alabama Picks and Predictions: Any Chance Pavia Pulls It Off Again?

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Diego Pavia and the Commodores host the LSU Tigers this Saturday - LSU Vanderbilt Picks

We’ve got a massive SEC Showdown in Tuscaloosa this weekend as two top 20 teams go head to head. Diego Pavia leads the No. 19 ranked Vanderbilt Commodores into enemy territory to take on the No. 10 ranked Alabama Crimson Tide. This matchup is personal to the Tide, who were upset by Vandy in Nashville last season, losing 40-35. You’ve got to imagine Kalen DeBoer and company have had this one circled, waiting almost an entire calendar year to enact their revenge. Will they come to play after a big win on the road in Athens? Or can Pavia pull off another miraculous upset? Let’s get into our favorite picks in this contest and find out.

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#16 Vanderbilt Commodores vs. #10 Alabama Crimson Tide NCAA Football Insights

Ty Simpson has finally found his mojo after leading the Tide to three straight wins - Vanderbilt Alabama Picks

Ty Simpson has finally found his mojo after leading the Tide to three straight wins

Both teams are 1-0 in conference play so far this season, but Alabama does have an extra blemish on their record. They lost on the road in Tallahassee to the Florida State Seminoles, but have won three straight since, beating Louisiana-Monroe, Wisconsin, and the No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs away from home. Ty Simpson has certainly found his groove, and so has the Alabama defense, giving up just 11.67 points per game in their last three.

But Vanderbilt has been perfect. They are 5-0 overall and have a conference win as well. The Commodores have beaten Charleston Southern, Georgia State and Utah State at FirstBank Stadium, while also earning victories over Virginia Tech and South Carolina away from home. But now they face a team that has all the motivation in the world to knock them down a peg. And what better spot for this Alabama team to prove they are national title contenders.

Matchup Information – Vanderbilt vs. Alabama – October 4

  • Venue & Location: Bryant-Denny Stadium (Tuscaloosa, AL)
  • Date: Saturday, October 4, 2025
  • Kick Off: 3:30 p.m. Eastern
  • Broadcast: ABC

Vanderbilt vs. Alabama Betting Odds

Odds are courtesy of BetOnline, one of our favorite online sportsbooks, as of October 2, 2025 at 3:56 p.m. eastern. Sign up today with Promo Code BNBOL55 for a 55% deposit bonus.

Spread

  • Vanderbilt +10.5 (-110)
  • Alabama -10.5 (-110)

Moneyline

  • Vanderbilt +334
  • Alabama -425

Total

  • Over 55 (-118)
  • Under 55 (-102)

Like I said, the Crimson Tide have had this circled. There’s no way they let Vanderbilt beat them twice, right? Especially not in the first two year’s of the DeBoer era. But it’s hard to deny what Pavia has done at Vandy.

The year before Pavia showed up on campus, the Commodores went 2-10. They had not made a bowl game since 2018, and hadn’t had a winning season since 2013. Change was needed in Nashville, and the quarterback brought it. He is now 12-6 as a starter at Vanderbilt, with a Birmingham Bowl win as well. Can they continue their perfection on the road in an extremely hostile environment?

#16 Vanderbilt vs. #10 Alabama NCAA Football Picks and Predictions

Bray Hubbard leads the Crimson Tide with 12 solo and 17 total tackles this season - Vanderbilt Alabama Picks

Bray Hubbard leads the Crimson Tide with 12 solo and 17 total tackles this season

Vanderbilt vs. Alabama Prediction: Alabama Wins & Covers, Under 55

Best Bet: Vanderbilt/Alabama Under 55 (-102) BetOnline

Full transparency (as always), I did snag this earlier in the week at 56.5. If you tuned in to The Ole College Try on Tuesday, you would’ve heard all about it before I sat down to type this. Nevertheless, this number is still playable, as I think defense will be a main focus from both squads (especially from the hosts).

Alabama’s defense had plenty of holes against Florida State. Perhaps they were overlooking the new personnel of the then unranked Seminoles, but have since figured it out. Sure, the Tide could be looking ahead to their matchup in Columbia next week, but quite frankly, they can’t afford to. The Tide need to win this game, and it starts on the defensive end.

The Tide held Georgia to just a 25% third down conversion rate, and have held two of their last three opponents to less than 210 total yards. Alabama has also forced at least one turnover in every game, and Pavia does have three picks on the year. Ultimately, if there was a game for Vandy’s offense to come back down to Earth, this is the one.

Now, with Alabama facing a tough Mizzou team next week, I would imagine they might take their foot off the gas on offense in the second half, assuming they have built the lead. All this means is Simpson won’t be chucking it down field, and will instead hand it off to his backs to chew clock, keeping Pavia and company on the sideline.

The secondaries are clearly the weak spot for both defensive units, but with Vandy’s rush heavy attack and the success I imagine Alabama having early on, I don’t think they will let up enough points to cover this total.

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