Points have been plentiful in most UTSA vs. North Texas matchups in recent years, and that should once again be the case when the two teams meet tomorrow at DATCU Stadium in Denton (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN+).
The Mean Green (5-1, 1-1 American) tasted defeat for the first time this season last week against South Florida, who came in Denton and put up 63 points in a 27-point win.
North Texas actually led 21-14 late in the first half, but a muffed punt positioned USF to knot the game with seconds to spare before the break, and the Bulls then took complete control by scoring four touchdowns in the first seven minutes of the third quarter, including three in two and a half minutes.
Now, the Mean Green will look to rebound against the Roadrunners (3-3, 1-1 American), who bounced back from a frustrating loss at Temple with a 61-13 rout of Rice last week.
This is the start of a tough trio of games for UTSA, who will host Tulane on the 30th then visit USF November 6. If they want to improve upon last season’s 7-6 finish, a win in Denton this weekend would be big.
Who will come out on top in this Lone Star State showdown? Read on for our UTSA vs. North Texas prediction and picks, which are accompanied by the best odds from top online sportsbooks such as BetOnline.
Utah vs. North Texas Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| UTSA | +4 (-110) | +155 | Over 65.5 (-110) |
| North Texas | -4 (-110) | -177 | Under 65.5 (-110) |
UTSA vs. North Texas Betting Trends
- UTSA is 3-3 against the spread this season, including 1-2 ATS on the road.
- The Roadrunners covered in their only previous game as an underdog, falling 42-24 at Texas A&M as a 23.5-point underdog in their season opener.
- Dating back to the 2021 season, UTSA is 1-10 SU and 4-7 ATS as an underdog.
- The over is 4-2 in UTSA’s games this season and 14-6 in the Roadrunners’ last 20 games.
- The Mean Green have been favored in all of their games this season and are 4-2 ATS thus far.
- The over is 4-2 in North Texas’s games this season and 13-7 in their last 20 games overall.
UTSA vs. North Texas Prediction and Picks
Prediction: North Texas to win
Giving up 63 points at home is rough no matter how you look at it. But USF is a good team, and you are rarely going to see the kind of stretch that spanned the last minute of the first half and the first seven minutes of the second half, in which the Bulls turned a 21-14 deficit into a 42-21 lead.
Three Mean Green turnovers were turned into touchdowns in that stretch, including a scoop and score that made it 42-21. It was about as bad as bad can get, but there’s only so much that can be read into how the game turned out for North Texas.
Until last week’s game, the Mean Green had turned the ball over just three times, none of which were interceptions for redshirt freshman quarterback Drew Mestemaker, whose streak of passes without an interception reached 164 before he tossed the first of his three picks against USF.
This is a team that put up 45 points against Army a game after the Knights upset Kansas State in Manhattan, 59 against Washington State, and 36 against South Alabama, which is more than Tulane (33) and Auburn (31). And before things unraveled against South Florida, North Texas had 21 points on the board and still finished with 36 despite five turnovers, as well as a turnover on downs near the red zone.
That stretch against USF was a nightmare, but the overall body of work for the Mean Green has been impressive, and I think they will keep it going against a UTSA team that balled out against a bad Rice team but still seems to be trying to figure out the best version of itself.
UTSA vs. North Texas Picks
1) UTSA/North Texas First Half Over 33 (-110 at Bovada)
This is a high total, but it has hit in five of the last six UTSA vs. North Texas matchups.
Also, it has hit four times in UNT’s six games this season, with 151 of the Mean Green’s 260 points coming in the first half. Things have not been as prolific for UTSA, but the Roadrunners have scored 10+ points in the first half in every game thus far.
2) UTSA/North Texas Over 65.5 (-110 at BetOnline)
Just as the over 33.5 has hit in five of the last six UTSA vs. North Texas matchups, the over on this number has hit in five of the last six.
Offensively, North Texas should keep rolling. They have scored 33+ points and tallied 400+ yards in every game this season, and I don’t see UTSA’s defense being able to slow down the Mean Green.
UTSA’s offense has had its ups and downs this season, but QB Owen McCown is coming off of a solid showing against Rice (15 for 21, 236 yards, 3 TD), which is a good sign.
Also, North Texas is bad against the run, having allowed 200+ rushing yards in three straight games and four of six this season. That should see UTSA RB Robert Henry Jr. hit the century mark for the fifth time this season. If he does that, the Roadrunners should put some points on the board. In his career at UTSA, the Roadrunners have scored 49, 41, 48, 51, 24, 36, 48, and 17 points when he has run for 70+ yards.
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