UNLV vs. Boise State Prediction & Picks (10/17/25)

Dan Mullen led the Rebels to 10 wins in his first season as Head Coach - Boise State UNLV Picks

This week’s college football schedule features five matchups between ranked teams and could be a very important weekend for College Football Playoff possibilities. But one of the most notable matchups does not involve a ranked team. That would be Saturday afternoon’s UNLV vs. Boise State showdown (3:30 p.m. ET, FS1), which could be the first of two meetings between the Rebels and Broncos this season.

Each of the past two seasons, UNLV and Boise State have met in the Mountain West championship game, with the Broncos winning both times.

Is a third consecutive title tilt in the cards? At the midpoint of the season, UNLV (6-0, 2-0 Mountain West) and Boise State (4-2, 2-0) are two of three 2-0 teams in what looks to be a competitive conference race. San Diego State (5-1, 2-0) is thriving in Sean Lewis’s second season, and Fresno State (5-2, 2-1) and Hawaii (5-2, 2-1) can’t be counted out at this point even with a blemish already.

This weekend, all eyes will be on Albertsons Stadium, for a UNLV vs. Boise State matchup that very nearly lost some of its luster.

Whether or not the Rebels were looking ahead to this week, they received an almighty scare from Air Force (1-5, 0-4), who pushed them all the way. In the end, UNLV, who trailed 21-10 in the first half, survived to win 51-48 after a wild second half that featured nine lead changes, including six in the fourth quarter.

Now, can the Rebels defeat the Broncos for the first time on the FBS level? Read on for our UNLV vs. Boise State prediction and picks. Also, get the best odds from top online sportsbooks such as BetOnline.

UNLV vs. Boise State Odds

Team	Spread	Moneyline	Over/Under
UNLV	+13 (-110)	+383	Over 62 (+105)
Boise State	-13 (-110)	-500	Under 62 (-125)

UNLV vs. Boise State Betting Trends

UNLV is 4-2 against the spread this season. In their lone game as an underdog, they covered and won outright at UCLA.
As a program, the Rebels are 6-6 SU and 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog.
Overs and unders have had an even 3-3 split in UNLV’s games thus far.
Boise State is 4-1-1 ATS this season, including 4-1 ATS as a favorite.
The Broncos are 3-0 SU and ATS at home this season.
Boise State has won 15 straight home games dating back to the 2023 season, and they are 11-4 ATS during that streak.
The over is 4-2 in Boise State’s games this season.

UNLV vs. Boise State Prediction and Picks

Prediction: Boise State to win

The last time UNLV defeated Boise State was 1976, when the two programs were in Division II and foes in the Big Sky Conference. The Broncos won the following year, then they did not meet again until 2011, Boise State’s first year in the Mountain West.

Since then, they are 8-0 vs. UNLV, and all but last year’s 29-24 win at Allegiant Stadium have been 14+ point wins.

Can the Rebels finally end the streak? They are producing at a high level offensively, scoring 30+ points in every game. QB Anthony Colandrea, who had 429 total yards and three touchdowns against Air Force, is thriving. So is running back Jai’Den Thomas, who is averaging eight yards per carry and has seven total touchdowns.

But they have gotten themselves into a double-digit hole three times now this season, against Idaho State to open the season, at Miami (Ohio), and last week against Air Force, who racked up 428 rushing yards and 603 total yards.

Air Force is a unique matchup even if they are 1-5. They even put up more than 500 yards in a loss to Boise State last month. So, it’s not just the Rebels who have struggled to slow the Falcons.

That said, it is clear UNLV’s defense is more of a liability than an asset. Boise State has two good running backs in Dylan Riley and Sire Gaines, and against a defense that has not had a sack in the last three games, Maddux Madsen should have time to make good decisions with the ball and be efficient.

I like UNLV’s offense (which should come as no surprise) and think this one could be close. But Albertsons Stadium is a tough place to play, especially if you have never won there.

UNLV vs. Boise State Picks

1) UNLV Team Total Over 26.5 Points (+115 at Lucky Rebel)

Boise State has given up 25 or more points four times this season (34 at South Florida, 37 at Air Force, 28 at Notre Dame, and 25 vs. Nex Mexico), so this feels like oddsmakers are underestimating UNLV a bit here, even if Boise State is a big favorite at home.

Even in a losing effort, the Rebels should be able to put some points on the board. They won’t lose because they can’t score.

2) UNLV/Boise State First Quarter Over 13.5 Points (-120 at BetOnline)

This will require a couple of first-quarter touchdowns (and no kicker shenanigans), but I think we will see some offense early. Both teams run the ball well, and that defending the run is the weak spot for both teams defensively, even if Boise State did hold New Mexico to only 49 rushing yards last week.

3) UNLV +13.5 (-110 at Bovada)

Boise State should extend its home win streak to 16 games, but this is a lot of points.

In fact, it’s not much smaller of a spread than the spread was for Boise State’s home game against New Mexico or the Broncos’ home game against Appalachian State. And while UNLV may be unproven against quality competition, they are most certainly better than either of those teams.

It is entirely possible that Boise State runs away with this one, but again, this is a lot of points. To be safe, you might be wise to buy out to +14, but even at -13.5, it’s still a take.

Other College Football Betting Information

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