UNLV vs. Boise State Picks and Predictions: Mountain West Championship

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Dan Mullen led the Rebels to 10 wins in his first season as Head Coach - Boise State UNLV Picks

Two teams meet in the Mountain West Conference Championship for the third straight season. Two years ago, the Boise State Broncos beat the UNLV Rebels at Allegiant Stadium, 44-20. Last season, the Broncos won 21-7 at home, solidifying their spot in the College Football Playoff. While a spot in the field of 12 isn’t guaranteed with a win, crazy things could possibly open the door. Let’s discuss our favorite picks.

More NCAA Football Coverage

Go check out what else I’ve got on the slate for conference championship weekend, and view the latest odds at the best online sportsbooks.

UNLV Rebels vs. Boise State Broncos NCAA Football Insights

The Broncos went 8-4 this year, while the Rebels were 10-2, but both posted 6-2 conference records and ended up in the conference championship. Boise State won the head to head meeting at home on October 18, beating the Rebels 56-31. We saw over 1,000 combined total yards between the offenses and 87 points, yet this total is slightly lower than the first meeting.

UNLV is running hot, winning four straight games to end their season, while Boise won their last two. Can the Rebels shock the world with an upset this Saturday?

The small path this conference champion would have into the field of 12, would be a Duke upset over Virginia in the ACC, and a Troy win over James Madison in the Sun Belt. If that were the case, the last spot would go to either the Blue Devils, or the winner of this game, whoever the committee decides to rank higher.

Matchup Information – UNLV vs. Boise State – December 5

  • Venue & Location: Albertsons Stadium (Boise, ID)
  • Date: Friday, December 5, 2025
  • Kick Off: 8:00 p.m. Eastern
  • Broadcast: FOX

UNLV vs. Boise State Betting Odds

Odds are courtesy of BetOnline, one of our favorite online sportsbooks, as of December 4, 2025 at 11:34 a.m. eastern. Sign up today with Promo Code BNBOL55 for a 55% deposit bonus. BetOnline offers a wide variety of unique markets across nearly every sport imaginable.

Spread

  • UNLV +4.5 (-115)
  • Boise State -4.5 (-105)

Moneyline

  • UNLV +165
  • Boise State -190

Total

  • Over 58.5 (-112)
  • Under 58.5 (-108)

The UNLV offense is arguably top 10 in the country. They rank No. 7 in yards per play, No. 6 in points per play, No. 9 in third down conversion and No. 6 in red zone scoring percentage. The Rebels rank top 16 in both yards per rush and yards per pass, producing a very efficient run first offense. But defensively, they can’t stop the run, aren’t too great in the secondary and are bottom 15 in red zone scoring allowed.

Somehow, they are still No. 9 in opponent third down conversion rate. Boise is just as bad at giving up scoring in the red zone (No. 120), and really aren’t efficient offensively. I think we see plenty of points, despite the total dropping, but I’ll stick with betting a player prop.

UNLV vs. Boise State NCAA Football Picks and Predictions

Anthony Colandrea is second on the team in carries, rushing yards and touchdowns - UNLV Boise State Picks

Anthony Colandrea is second on the team in carries, rushing yards and touchdowns

UNLV vs. Boise State Prediction: Boise State Wins and Covers, Over 58.5

Best Bet: Anthony Colandrea Over 27.5 Rushing Yards (-135) BetOnline

I paid a ton of juice and snagged this before it moved up to 30.5, but I still think that number is playable. This kid is a run first guy, and has no problem using his legs to will his team to victory, especially in a revenge spot. He already tore apart this Broncos’ defense once, going for 87 yards and a touchdown on just 13 carries, including a longest rush of 28 yards, which would clear our number in one go. Obviously we need to worry about sacks, but Boise is outside the top 50 at getting to the QB. Plus, they have tons of trouble containing them as well.

Rushing QBs vs. Boise State

  • Byrum Brown (USF): 14-43-2, Long 23
  • Jared Taylor (EWU): 17-76-1, Long 18
  • Liam Szarka (AF): 20-110-1, Long 38
  • CJ Carr (ND): 3-25, Long 22
  • Darius Curry (CSU): 6-23, Long 20
  • Bryson Barnes (USU): 18-89-1, Long 27
  • Anthony Colandrea (UNLV): 13-87-1, Long 18

Colandrea has already done this once, and will have no problem doing it again. The Rebels run the ball 53% of the time for 5.5 yards per carry, ranking No. 11 in the country. Boise is north of 100 (No. 112, bottom 25) in yards per rush allowed, giving up 4.9 per attempt. Colandrea has cleared 30+ yards in 8/12 games this year, and has gone for 50+ fives times as well. Plus, he has had a double digit rush in all 12 games, a 15 yard rush in 10/12, and a 20 yard rush in over half his contests.

This number is far too low, I’ll back the kid to get it done, and I’ll take him to find the end zone for a unit at +120 as well.

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