Tulane vs. Ole Miss Prediction & Best Bets (9/20)

Trinidad Chambliss and the Rebels have a rematch against Tulane in the first round of the CFP - Tulane Ole Miss Early Odds

Following two hard-fought victories to open SEC play, No. 13 Ole Miss steps back out of conference this week to face Tulane in a tilt between two 3-0 teams. Saturday’s Tulane vs. Ole Miss matchup is set for 3:30 p.m. ET (2:30 p.m. local), with ESPN carrying the 73^rd all-time meeting between former SEC rivals.

Ole Miss leads the series 44-28, but the Green Wave have not beaten the Rebels since a 14-9 win in 1988, which is also their most recent win in Oxford. Two years ago, they met as ranked teams in New Orleans, with Ole Miss pulling away in the fourth quarter for a 37-20 win over a Tulane team without star QB Michael Pratt.

The Rebels are coming off of two tight conference wins over Kentucky (30-23) and Arkansas (41-35), the latter of which came with D-II transfer QB Trinidad Chambliss (21 for 29, 353 yards, TD, 15 rush attempts, 62 yards, 2 TD) dazzling in his first FBS start in place of the injured Austin Simmons.

Tulane’s transfer quarterback also went off last week. BYU transfer Jake Retzlaff (15 for 23, 245 yards, 17 rush attempts, 111 yards, 4 TD) had a huge day in a 34-27 win over former Green Wave QB Darian Mensah and Duke.

The Rebels have a huge game a week from Saturday, but Ole Miss cannot split its focus on its matchup vs. Tulane and its upcoming matchup vs. #3 LSU (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN). This Tulane team is seen by many as the favorite in the American Conference.

Can the Green Wave run with the Rebels all the way in Oxford? Read on for our Tulane vs. Ole Miss prediction and best bets. Also, get the best value odds from top online sportsbooks such as BetOnline.

Tulane vs. Ole Miss Prediction and Best Bets

Prediction: Ole Miss to win

There are some legitimate questions to be asked of the Ole Miss defense after it nearly gave away the game against Arkansas. The Razorbacks racked up 526 yards, and after trailing 41-28 in the fourth, were driving to take the lead late before fumbling the ball and the game away inside the Ole Miss 25.

The Rebels had no answer for Arkansas QB Taylen Green, who smoked Ole Miss to the tune of 420 total yards (22 for 35 yards, 305 yards, TD; 14 rush attempts, 115 yards, TD).

They will have their hands full again this week with Retzlaff, who has unlocked a new gear in his ground game. In 17 games at BYU, Retzlaff’s high in rushing yards was 81 (vs. Oklahoma State last year). In three games at Tulane, he has eclipsed the 100-yard mark twice, and he has run for 288 yards (and six scores) at an average of 7.2 yards per attempt.

Also, after throwing multiple interceptions in five games last season, Retzlaff has yet to throw a pick in 78 passes this season.

This week’s Tulane vs. Ole Miss matchup will be Retzlaff’s toughest test of the season, as their hardest remaining game is a trip to Memphis. But he should pass this test, and the potential return of RB Maurice Turner, who has missed the last two games with an ankle injury, could add another layer to Tulane’s offensive attack.

That said, the Rebels bring an outstanding offensive attack to the table themselves. And while defense might be what stands between Ole Miss and a College Football Playoff berth this season, it will not trip them up this week vs. Tulane. They will be pushed hard, but the Rebels will be 4-0 when LSU visits next week.

Tulane vs. Ole Miss Best Bets

1) Tulane/Ole Miss Over 61 (-110 at BetOnline)

Tulane’s defense actually did a respectable job against Mensah. He did complete 30 passes for 313 yards and three touchdowns, but they picked him off once, held him to 6.1 yards per attempt, and stopped Duke in key moments multiple times.

That said, they still allowed 452 yards, a week after allowing 31 points and 421 yards in a narrow win at South Alabama. Do not expect them to keep the Ole Miss offense in check much.

Similarly, do not expect the Ole Miss defense to put in a standout effort vs. the Tulane offense. But much like last week, a timely stop or two might be good enough to secure the win.

2) Jake Retzlaff to score a touchdown anytime (-139 at Lucky Rebel)

There is a lot of juice here, but Retzlaff should have another productive game with his legs, and that should see him call his own number and find the end zone at least once for the fourth straight game.

3) Jake Retzlaff 60+ Rushing Yards (+100 at Bovada)

It is a small sample size, but Ole Miss’s defense has been one of the worst in the FBS against the run thus far.

Georgia State: 35 attempts, 191 yards, 5.5 yards per attempt
Kentucky: 37 attempts, 172 yards, 4.6 yards per attempt
Arkansas: 37 attempts, 221 yards, 6.0 yards per attempt
Total: 109 attempts, 584 yards, 5.4 yards per attempt

Thanks to Retzlaff, Tulane has racked up a lot of rushing yards even Turner absent against South Alabama and Duke.

Northwestern: 42 attempts, 269 yards, 6.4 yards per attempt
South Alabama: 45 attempts, 241 yards, 5.4 yards per attempt
Duke: 38 attempts, 156 yards, 4.1 yards per attempt
Total: 125 attempts, 666 yards, 5.3 yards per attempt

Given how this Tulane offense vs. Ole Miss defense matchup shapes up and that Retzlaff should have 10+ rushing attempts at minimum, this is outstanding value for 60+ yards. If you are so inclined, I’d even recommend a sprinkle on 70+ (+150) and 80+ (+200), especially if you think Tulane will keep it relatively close (which I do).

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