Last Saturday, Arizona State burrowed its way out of a 17-0 hole at Mississippi State, only to lose the game and its lofty ranking on a last-minute touchdown by the battling Bulldogs. This week, they will look to bounce back at home as they close out non-conference play against a tough Texas State team. Saturday night’s Texas State vs. Arizona State matchup is set for a 10:30 p.m. ET kickoff for a national audience on TNT/truTV.
The Sun Devils (1-1) went into Starkville ranked 12th in the AP poll and favored by a score, but they were on the back foot from the outset as the Bulldogs jumped out to a 17-0 lead.
ASU turned it around in the second half by Raleek Brown and Kanye Udoh running MSU into the ground and took a 20-17 lead with 98 seconds left. But being held to a field goal from the 1 after a nine-minute, 95-yard drive ultimately set the stage for their demise, which came about on courtesy of Mississippi State’s third long touchdown pass of the night.
Though they lost a close game to what appears to be a much improved team, the Sun Devils dropped all the way out of the AP poll. But occupying the top “receiving votes” spot means that a win over vs. 2-0 Texas State should send Arizona State back into the rankings ahead of next week’s Big 12 opener at Baylor (time TBD, FOX).
That is by no means a guarantee, as G.J. Kinne’s Bobcats are lighting it up on offense once again. Read on for our Texas State vs. Arizona State prediction and best bets. Also, get the best odds from BetOnline and other top online sportsbooks, as we have the line shopping covered for you.
Texas State vs. Arizona State Prediction and Best Bets
Prediction for Texas State vs. Arizona State: Arizona State to win
The Sun Devils started with a cupcake in Northern Arizona, but that is as easy as it will get this season.
This week’s challenge doesn’t match the trip to Cowbell Hell but could bring the same result if Arizona State is not careful.
Led by freshman quarterback Brad Jackson, running backs Lincoln Pare and Jaylen Jones, and receiver Beau Sparks, Texas State’s offense put up 616 yards in a 52-27 win over Eastern Michigan and 454 more in last week’s 43-36 win at UTSA.
In last year’s matchup vs. Texas State, Arizona State was fortunate to leave San Marcos with a 31-28 victory. The Bobcats led 21-7 in the second quarter and 28-21 in the third but couldn’t close the deal despite holding Cam Skattebo to a season-low 2.6 yards per carry.
Gone are QB Jordan McCloud, RB Ismail Mahdi, and leading receivers Jaden Williams, Joey Hobert, and Kole Wilson, but the Bobcats have missed nary a beat offensively thus far.
Arizona State should have another productive night on the ground against a defense that has allowed 388 yards at 5.9 yards per attempt. But this is a big week for ASU QB Sam Leavitt, who was just 10 for 22 for 82 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions at Mississippi State. He completed only four passes for 14 yards to receivers not named Jordan Tyson, who had six catches for 68 yards and a touchdown.
Leavitt and the Sun Devils should play a cleaner game this week, and they should get back into the win column and the AP poll. That said, look for Texas State to push Arizona State hard again.
Texas State vs. Arizona State Best Bets
1) Texas State +17.5 (-110 at Everygame)
This spread is much too big when the Bobcats are equipped to play it close, even in Tempe.
Arizona State’s defense gave up touchdowns of 47, 48, and 58 yards through the air at Mississippi State, and in Sparks (12 catches, 237 yards, 19.8 yards per catch, 5 TD) and Chris Dawn Jr. (seven catches, 159 yards, 22.7 YPC), Jackson has a couple of targets who can stretch the field.
Defense wins championships, but offense often pulls upsets. And the Bobcats have an offense that can pull an upset in Tempe.
In the end, Arizona State will avert disaster vs. Texas State, but don’t look for them to be on the Sun Devils’ schedule again soon unless Texas State ends up in the Big 12.
2) Texas State/Arizona State Over 60.5 (-117 at BetOnline)
When Arizona State escaped vs. Texas State last year in San Marcos, points dried up in the second half after a 42-point first half.
But I’m looking for a 38-27 or 41-31 kind of game at <strike>Sun Devil</strike> Mountain America Stadium in a nod to the halcyon days of Pac-12 After Dark, with the Bobcats will soon join the conference that the Sun Devils recently departed.
3) Texas State over 22.5 Points (-105 at Bovada)
If FCS Northern Arizona could score 19 points against Arizona State and Mississippi State could manage 24 despite being held without a point for more than 40 minutes spanning the last 12:51 of the first half and the first 29+ minutes of the second half, it would be very surprising if the Bobcats are held to fewer than 23 points.
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