#9 Texas vs. Florida Picks and Predictions: Arch Manning Heads to the Swamp

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Arch Manning and the Longhorns take on the undefeated Aggies in Austin - Texas A&M Texas Picks

The top 10 ranked Texas Longhorns play an afternoon game in swamp of Gainesville, as the Florida Gators host their new SEC opponent. Two exciting quarterbacks who are still trying to find their mojo this season battle it out, as Arch Manning and DJ Lagway go head to head. Last season Quinn Ewers lead the Longhorns to a 49-17 home victory over Florida, where Manning went 3/6 for 19 yards in the last 16 minutes of the game (when Texas was up 42-3). Lagway was injured and Aiden Warner started for Florida. Can the Gators surprise some people and win this game? Explore my favorite picks below.

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#9 Texas Longhorns vs. Florida Gators NCAA Football Insights

After losing to the Ohio State Buckeyes, the Longhorns have had three cupcake wins. They beat San Jose State, UTEP, and Sam Houston by a combined score of 120-17. But that doesn’t matter to me. What matters is will they come focused in their first conference game of the season. Both teams are coming off a bye week, so it will be interesting to see how that plays out.

The Gators have already tasted conference defeat, and all they’ve done this year is lose. After beating Long Island 55-0, the Gators lost to South Florida 18-16 at home, and are coming off back to back road losses against LSU 20-10, and Miami 26-7. Every single day, I am waiting for the alert that Billy Napier is looking for another job, yet he still leads Lagway and company in this contest. Can they turn things around and save the season?

Matchup Information – Texas vs. Florida – October 4

  • Venue & Location: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium (Gainesville, FL)
  • Date: Saturday, October 4, 2025
  • Kick Off: 3:30 p.m. Eastern
  • Broadcast: ESPN

Texas vs. Florida Betting Odds

Odds are courtesy of BetOnline, one of our favorite online sportsbooks, as of October 3, 2025 at 2:33 p.m. eastern. Sign up today with Promo Code BNBOL55 for a 55% deposit bonus.

Spread

  • Texas -5.5 (-105)
  • Florida +5.5 (-115)

Moneyline

  • Texas -210
  • Florida +180

Total

  • Over 42.5 (-110)
  • Under 42.5 (-110)

I’ve never understood the hype surrounding Florida going into this season (as I’ve probably mentioned every single time I write about this team). And to be honest, even if Texas isn’t as good as we thought offensively, their defense is the truth. There are several players on that unit that will be regulars on Sundays in years to come, and I am totally okay with taking the Longhorns offense out of the equation.

This line opened with Texas giving a touchdown plus the hook and was quickly being bought down, even touching -4.5 at one point. I want no part of the spread, but I do think the Longhorns cover the lowest number.

#9 Texas vs. Florida NCAA Football Picks and Predictions

Three touchdowns will be too much to ask for from Lagway against this Longhorns defense - Texas Florida Picks

Three touchdowns will be too much to ask for from Lagway against this Longhorns defense

Texas vs. Florida Prediction: Texas Wins & Covers, Under 42.5

Best Bet: Florida Gators Team Total Under 17.5 (-110) BetOnline

As long as you are getting 17 plus the hook, this is a go for me. Texas’ defense is good. Really good.

They held Ohio State to just 203 yards of offense, letting them convert just 25% of their third downs (3/12). The Longhorns lost that game because of their untimely turnovers, their one (of five) conversions on fourth down, and they were much less disciplined, having six penalties for 50 yards while the Buckeyes only had two for 15. The defense played great.

And I expected the Longhorns defense to carry this season if Arch started slow (which he has). We can”t take much from their blowout wins, but I have little faith in the Florida offense. They are putting up just 11 points per game in contests that matter, and Lagway is not showing out like he needs to. He has more interceptions than touchdowns this season (6-5) with no rushing TDs to show for it either. He’s taken plenty of hits, getting sacked in every game including three times against LSU and four against Miami.

The Longhorns have 11 sacks in three games when they aren’t facing an incredible Buckeyes offensive line, and clearly the Gators OL isn’t helping the team at all. I already like the game to go under, I would prefer to not worry about how Texas performs on offense, and I don’t see how Florida moves the ball, even at home.

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