The NCAA Football schedulers gifted us one more matchup to wrap up a long Week 1 of action. We kicked things off Thursday Night, and now conclude a big weekend with one more contest on Monday Night, and despite no numbers next to these schools’ names, it should be an entertaining contest. The TCU Horned Frogs find themselves in Chapel Hill facing the North Carolina Tar Heels as Bill Belichick begins his college coaching era. We’ve dug into the game and found our favorite picks, so let’s not waste time and get right into it!
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TCU Horned Frogs vs. North Carolina Tar Heels NCAA Football Insights
Bill Belichick takes over as Head Coach of the Tar Heels
It’s a new era in Chapel Hill. Bill Belichick takes over as head coach of the North Carolina Tar Heels, and Michael Lombardi joins him as the GM. They get to open things up on the national stage at home against a tougher Big 12 opponent. Sure, we all know Bill’s personality from his time in New England, and yes, we are all aware of what’s going on in his love life.
Will those distractions be enough for TCU to come in and steal a win on the road?
It wouldn’t necessarily be stealing, as the Horned Frogs are currently a 3.5 point favorite, moving up half a point from the even field goal opener. Josh Hoover and his furry friends return for TCU’s offense after winning six of their last seven games, including a New Mexico Bowl victory and just a three point loss to Baylor on the road.
Can they start off the 2025 season with a win away from home?
Matchup Information – TCU vs North Carolina – September 1
- Venue & Location: Kenan Stadium (Chapel Hill, NC)
- Date: Monday, September 1, 2025
- Kick Off: 8:00 p.m. Eastern
- Broadcast: ESPN
TCU vs. North Carolina Betting Odds
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Spread
- TCU -3.5 (-110)
- North Carolina +3.5 (-110)
Moneyline
- TCU -170
- North Carolina +149
Total
- Over 55 (-113)
- Under 55 (-107)
Josh Hoover returns to sling the pill for the Horned Frogs this season
Josh Hoover threw for nearly 4,000 yards last season with 27 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. He returns one of his top pass catchers in WR Eric McAlister who had 39 catches for 762 yards (No. 2 on the team) and five touchdowns last season. Backup RB Trent Battle and TE DJ Rogers are ready to be the top guys in their position this season after two touchdowns each last year.
Transfer wise, they brought in wide outs Jordan Dwyer of Idaho, and Joseph Manjack IV in the slot. Manjack IV has over 900 receiving yards and nine touchdowns over his past two seasons at Houston and USC. Now back in the Big 12 he looks to step up for the Horned Frogs.
On the Tar Heel side of things, Belichick announced South Alabama transfer, Gio Lopez, will be the starting QB. Last season he threw for 2,559 yards with a 66% completion percentage and added 18 touchdowns and just five interceptions. The dual threat is a prolific runner too, adding 463 rushing yards and seven touchdowns on the ground.
Defensively, the Tar Heels have nine new transfers starting, and to be honest, that worries me.
TCU vs. North Carolina NCAA Football Picks and Predictions
Gio Lopez will rely on his legs on Monday to make some plays on the football field
TCU vs. North Carolina Prediction: TCU Wins & Covers, Over 55
Best Bet: Gio Lopez (UNC) Over 29.5 Rushing Yards (-122) BetOnline
Back this shifty QB with me to run all over the defense in front of his home crowd in their opener. As you can see, I still think TCU wins by a touchdown, but I do think we see plenty of back and forth between these teams.
TCU’s defense wasn’t anything special last season, and it’s virtually unchanged besides a couple pieces. The Horned Frogs allowed 26.7 points per game (No. 70), gave up tons of conversions on third down (No. 105, 44.6%), and allowed nearly 170 rushing yards per contest (No. 91) last year. Not great.
This quarterback will make teams pay. I am not worried about him getting sacked, because he will have enough carries to counteract any sack yardage, plus he’s agile enough to escape and make a play with his legs.
Lopez had 30+ rushing yards in 7/11 games last season, including two matches where he ended with 25 yards on three carries and 29 on seven carries. However he averaged 5.6 yards per rush last season, and TCU struggled against mobile QBs.
TCU vs. Rushing QBs Last Season
- Ashton Daniels (STAN): 17-87
- KJ Jefferson (UCF): 9-46
- Kevin Jennings (SMU): 10-41
- Brendan Sorsby (CIN): 12-93
If Lopez carries the ball at least 10 times, I am confident in him getting this number with ease. He only averaged 7.5 carries for 42.3 rushing yards per game last season, so history tells us he probably gets the job done in less than double digits carries.
Sweat this player prop with me as we watch these two teams battle it out.
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