Get ready for some Big 12 after dark on Friday in Tempe, as the No. 24 ranked TCU Horned Frogs head out west to take on the Arizona State Sun Devils. The Horned Frogs are undefeated through three games, while the hosts sit at 3-1 on the season, losing only to an SEC foe on the road with 30 seconds left in the game. After that loss to the Mississippi State Bulldogs, the Sun Devils have bounced back with two straight wins, including their first in conference play. Can they defend their home turf against a top 25 Big 12 opponent? Or does Josh Hoover lead the Horned Frogs to a 4-0 start, their first since their National Runner Up finish in 2022. Let’s get into our favorite picks, and find out who walks away with a win.
Editor’s Note: We snagged the Horned Frogs catching a full field goal (like we wanted), but I still think they win outright.
More NCAA Football Coverage
- #8 Florida State vs. Virginia
- #22 Notre Dame vs. Arkansas
- #21 USC vs. #23 Illinois
- #4 LSU vs. #13 Ole Miss
- Auburn vs. #9 Texas A&M
- #6 Oregon vs. #3 Penn State
- #17 Alabama vs. #5 Georgia
- #25 BYU vs. Colorado
Go to Betting News to check out what else I’ve got on the slate for Week 5, and view the latest odds at the best online sportsbooks.
#24 TCU Horned Frogs vs. Arizona State Sun Devils NCAA Football Insights
Sam Leavitt leads the Sun Devils against the No. 24 ranked TCU Horned Frogs
TCU is scorching hot to start the season. They absolutely annihilated North Carolina in Chapel Bill on national television on Labor Day, beating the Tar Heels and Belichick 48-14 on the road. Then they smoked Abilene Christian, and took down SMU in the Iron Skillet, winning 35-24 over the Ponies. Now on a slightly shorter week, they head to Tempe on Friday Night to take down this Sun Devils team.
Arizona State had plenty to prove going into this season. After winning the Big 12 Championship and making the College Football Playoff, some thought their success was solely because of Cam Skattebo. Kenny Dillingham and Sam Leavitt knew expectations would be high, especially coming in ranked No. 11 in the first AP poll. But Skattebo played a major role that needed to be replaced. He accounted for 61.1% of their rushing yards, 70% of their rushing touchdowns, and was their second leading receiver, bringing in about 19% of the team’s receptions and receiving yards.
The Sun Devils were exposed a bit in Starkville, but have won two straight since, including three fourth quarter scores to beat Baylor on the road. But TCU seems to be a different animal this season, how will Arizona State respond?
Matchup Information – TCU vs. Arizona State – September 26
- Venue & Location: Mountain America Stadium (Tempe, AZ)
- Date: Friday, September 26, 2025
- Kick Off: 9:00 p.m. Eastern
- Broadcast: FOX
TCU s. Arizona State Betting Odds
Odds are courtesy of BetOnline, one of our favorite online sportsbooks, as of September 26, 2025 at 8:22 a.m. eastern. Sign up today with Promo Code BNBOL55 for a 55% deposit bonus.
Spread
- TCU +3 (-113)
- Arizona State -3 (-107)
Moneyline
- TCU +130
- Arizona State -150
Total
- Over 54.5 (-112)
- Under 54.5 (-108)
#24 TCU vs. Arizona State NCAA Football Picks and Predictions
Josh Hoover has thrown for 11 touchdowns and over 1,000 yards this year
TCU vs. Arizona State Prediction: TCU Wins Outright, Over 56
Best Bet: TCU +2.5 (-105) EveryGame
Personally, I think the wrong team is favored here. I get that the Horned Frogs are on the road, and betting an away ranked favorite against an unranked home underdog isn’t that appealing and could be a trap. But it’s tough to deny how good this TCU team is. Sure, one could argue that beating North Carolina isn’t that great of a win, but taking down SMU impressed me, and Josh Hoover has been playing as good as any quarterback in the country.
This number opened at +1.5 and has since been bought up to +2.5, so I will wait a little bit longer and see if we get a full field goal. I’ll be backing the Horned Frogs once it gets to three, and if it never gets there, I’ll still be backing them on the +2.5.
If I miss a line move and am left with +1.5 as my only option, I’ll likely just back them to win outright. Arizona State could not pull away from Baylor, letting them tie the ball game on three separate occasions. That is not sustainable against a rock solid offense like TCU based on the way they have been playing. The Sun Devils’ secondary ranks No. 82 in opponent completion percentage, allowing quarterbacks to complete nearly 64% of their passes, as well as No. 84 in passing yards allowed, giving up 237.7 per contest.
Even if TCU running back Kevorian Barnes is out for a second straight game, they proved that Hoover’s arm can be enough to lead them to victory, and I think he does just that this Friday Night in Tempe. Look for the TCU quarterback to torch the Sun Devils’ secondary this weekend.
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