The American Conference may have changed its name, but its competitiveness remains the same. And with three weeks of regular season games left, five teams have one conference loss and harbor hope of a chance to dance with the big boys in the College Football Playoff. That cluster of contenders will drop by at least one this weekend, as Saturday’s South Florida vs. Navy matchup will be an elimination game for one team (12:00 p.m. ET, ESPN2).
USF’s CFP chances took a hit with a 34-31 loss at Memphis on October 25, but with the Tigers (8-2, 4-2 American) now likely out of the running after last Friday’s home loss to Tulane (7-2, 4-1 American), the Bulls (7-2, 4-1 American) have one fewer obstacle to reaching the conference championship game.
Another obstacle will be removed if they can maneuver past the Midshipmen (7-2, 5-1 American). Navy enters this matchup off the back of consecutive losses, first at fellow conference title hopeful North Texas (8-1, 4-1 American) and then at Notre Dame.
In addition to the Bulls, Green Wave, Midshipmen, Mean Green, East Carolina (6-3, 4-1 American), whose lone conference loss is to Tulane, also remains in the hunt ahead of this weekend’s home matchup with Memphis, who will be hoping for two wins and some favorable twists and turns across the next three weeks.
One of those favorable twists would be a Navy win vs. South Florida, but the Bulls make the trek to terrapin territory favored by more than a touchdown.
Will it be another prolific and successful day for Byrum Brown and the Bulls? Read on for our South Florida vs. Navy prediction and picks, as well as the best betting odds from top online sportsbooks such as BetOnline.
South Florida vs. Navy Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| South Florida | -10.5 (-110) | -385 | Over 64.5 (-110) |
| Navy | +10.5 (-110) | +306 | Under 64.5 (-110) |
South Florida vs. Navy Betting Trends
- South Florida is 7-2 against the spread this season, including 4-1 ATS as a favorite and 2-2 ATS on the road.
- The Bulls are 7-9 SU and 9-7 ATS on the road under Alex Golesh, including 2-3 SU and ATS as a road favorite.
- The over is 6-3 in South Florida’s games this season, including 6-1 in their last seven.
- The over is 11-5 in USF’s road games under Alex Golesh, including 3-1 this season.
- Navy is 2-7 against the spread this season, including 0-2 ATS as an underdog and 1-4 ATS at home.
- The over is 7-2 in the Midshipmen’s games this season, including 4-1 in their home games.
South Florida vs. Navy Prediction and Picks
Prediction: South Florida to win
After their fourth-quarter capitulation at Memphis, USF had nearly two weeks to sit, stew, and size up the next opponent.
Unfortunately for UTSA, they were up next for the Bulls, who routed the Roadrunners 55-23 last Thursday.
Byrum Brown filled up the stat sheet once again, completing 14 of 15 passes for 239 yards and two touchdowns and rushing for 109 yards and another score on nine attempts.
More of the same looks likely for Saturday’s South Florida vs. Navy matchup.
Saturday’s 49-10 loss at Notre Dame marked the fifth straight game in which Navy has allowed 30+ points, and while they got away with it against Air Force, Temple, and Florida Atlantic, they did not at North Texas and Notre Dame.
In their 31-17 loss to the Mean Green, the Midshipmen allowed UNT running back Caleb Hawkins to rack up 194 rushing yards and four scores. And in South Bend, they were undone by a balanced attack, as the Fighting Irish put up 253 yards and four touchdowns through the air and 249 yards and four touchdowns on the ground.
It also didn’t help that Navy was without starting quarterback Blake Horvath, who missed the game due to an upper body injury he reportedly suffered against North Texas.
Horvath may return as soon as this week, but that does not alter the outlook here.
That is because Brown and the South Florida offense should once again flex their mighty muscles vs. Navy, whose defense has not been up to the task in recent weeks.
Also, while the offense has garnered much of the attention for USF, the Bulls are one of the American’s best against the run and rank first or second in the conference in numerous notable pass defense categories, including interceptions.
South Florida vs. Navy Picks
1) South Florida/Navy Over 64.5 (-110 at BetOnline)
Overs have been a frequent result for both teams this season, and while the over did not happen for a similar total in Navy’s loss to North Texas two weeks ago, an under in this matchup would be a bigger surprise.
2) South Florida Team Total Over 37.5 Points (-120 at Bovada)
I took this play for South Florida’s game at Memphis when it was a lower number at better odds (over 34.5 for +125 odds), and it ultimately fell short because a holding penalty in the waning moments took Nico Gramatica’s game-tying field goal attempt from 42 yards to 52 yards, which he missed.
That result does not put me off taking South Florida to pile on the points vs. Navy in their first road game since that one. The Midshipmen do not look like stopping anyone, especially a quarterback who is putting up rushing numbers that would fit in well in Annapolis.
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