On the way to a ranked matchup in the American Conference this week, one of the combatants stumbled, fumbled, and fell on the road against a team playing its first game with an interim head coach. That has taken some of the luster off Saturday’s South Florida vs. Memphis matchup (12:00 p.m. ET, ESPN2), but it still stands to have major implications for both teams.
The 18th-ranked Bulls (6-1, 3-0 American) have been a dominant force since losing at Miami last month. Last week, they overwhelmed the Owls of FAU 48-13 to keep pace with Navy (6-0, 4-0 American) and Tulane (6-1, 3-0 American) at the top of the conference standings.
Memphis (6-1, 2-1 American), meanwhile, failed to do the same as they fell 31-24 at UAB. Led by new interim coach Alex Mortensen, the Blazers, a 24-point underdog, held on for the upset after the Tigers committed three costly penalties after getting to the one-yard line in the final minute.
That sent Memphis, who was ranked 22nd, tumbling out of the rankings, and it also dropped them down the conference standings and into a four-way tie with North Texas (6-1, 2-1), East Carolina (4-3, 2-1), and Temple (4-3, 2-1).
For South Florida, this week’s matchup vs. Memphis is one of two big remaining hurdles, along with a visit to Navy on November 15. If they run the table, a College Football Playoff berth likely awaits. But if the Tigers can upset the odds tomorrow, they will be back in the mix for a conference title game berth.
Which of these teams will be left feeling the blues tomorrow afternoon? Read on for our South Florida vs. Memphis prediction and picks, as well as the best odds from top online sportsbooks such as BetOnline.
South Florida vs. Memphis Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| South Florida | -6 (-110) | -215 | Over 59 (+100) |
| Memphis | +6 (-110) | +183 | Under 59 (-120) |
South Florida vs. Memphis Betting Trends
- South Florida is 6-1 against the spread this season, including 3-0 as a favorite and 2-1 on the road.
- The Bulls are 7-8 SU and 9-6 ATS on the road under Alex Golesh, including 2-2 SU and ATS as a road favorite.
- The over is 4-1 in South Florida’s last five games.
- The over is 10-5 in USF’s road games under Alex Golesh, including 2-1 this season.
- Memphis is 6-1 ATS this season and covered in an upset win at home vs. Arkansas in its lone game as an underdog this season.
- The Tigers are 8-12 SU and 11-9 ATS as an underdog under Ryan Silverfield, but they are 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in their last five such games.
- The under is 5-2 in the Tigers’ games this season, including 3-1 in their home games.
South Florida vs. Memphis Prediction and Picks
Prediction: South Florida to win
In Birmingham, Memphis lost to a team that went in allowing an average of more than 41 points and 450 yards per game, was starting a quarterback who had thrown one pass all season, and had given up 53 points the previous week at FAU.
That said, it might have turned out differently had Memphis starting QB Brendon Lewis not left the game early in the third quarter due to a lower body injury.
That forced true freshman A.J. Hill into action, and while he did help give Memphis a chance in the end, a different outcome could have occurred had Lewis not been injured.
At the same time, Memphis allowed 470 yards and 31 points, and it could have been even more.
Lewis’s uncertain status is a concern, but the defensive performance is an even bigger concern. That is because South Florida enters its matchup vs. Memphis seventh in the FBS in scoring (41.7 PPG) and in the top 15 in yards per game (476.0).
In last week’s 48-13 rout of FAU, the Bulls racked up 522 total yards. Quarterback Byrum Brown accounted for 367 of those yards, going 14 for 24 for 256 yards and three scores through the air and rushing for 111 yards and a touchdown on 14 credited attempts.
Brown has now accounted for 2,170 yards and 22 touchdowns this season, and in three American Conference games, he has thrown for 712 yards and 10 touchdowns and run for 355 yards and four touchdowns.
One bad game does not suddenly make Memphis a bad team, but it is hard to see the Tigers being able to subdue Brown enough to win even if Lewis (1,777 total yards and 15 total TD) is able to play.
South Florida vs. Memphis Picks
1) South Florida/Memphis First Half Over 28.5 (-110 at BetOnline)
This number is a point or more higher elsewhere, and I would even lock it in at the higher numbers.
Defense is not the strength of either of these teams, and even if Hill starts in place of Lewis, I think he can move the ball well enough to get Memphis some early points. UAB is not much of a measuring stick there, but in all four of Hill’s drives last week, the Tigers moved the ball into scoring position.
2) South Florida Team Total Over 34.5 Points (+125 at Bovada)
The Tigers will certainly be motivated to put last week’s defensive dud behind them, but South Florida is rolling right now on offense and should continue to do so vs. Memphis.
While there are some decent defensive performances on the Tigers’ resume this season, the competition does have to be taken into consideration. And in their lone game to date against a good offense, they allowed 31 points and 500 yards against Taylen Green and Arkansas.
This is a lot of points to need, but at these odds and with what South Florida’s offense has been doing, it’s an easy take.
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