SMU vs. TCU Picks, Analysis and Predictions: September 20. 2025

Kevin Jennings and SMU took down TCU last year, can they do it again? SMU TCU Picks

The Dallas-Fort Worth area is going to be rocking on Saturday morning, as the SMU Mustangs travel from across the metro area to take on the TCU Horned Frogs. These rivals play each other pretty much every season, and last year SMU was victorious, beating TCU 66-42. Now the home team has won the past two meetings, and this weekend they are a touchdown favorite as well. Can SMU pull off an upset? Or will the Horned Frogs show them who runs DFW? Let’s get into our favorite picks.

Editor’s Note: No changes here. Sticking with this player prop for plus money.

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SMU Mustangs vs. TCU Horned Frogs NCAA Football Insights

Romello Brinson has 15 catches and three touchdowns for the Mustangs

SMU has an extra game under their belt, sitting at 2-1 on the season. They lost in double overtime at home against Baylor in Week 2 48-45, after leading 38-24 with less than 10 minutes to go. The Bears rallied for two late touchdowns, the tying one with 37 seconds on the clock, and rode that momentum to a victory in the second extra period. Other than that, SMU beat East Texas A&M and Missouri State. Big deal.

The Horned Frogs obliterated Bill Belichick and the North Carolina Tar Heels on Labor Day, winning 48-14 at Chapel Hill. They have a quick turn around, heading to Tempe to take on the Big 12 Champion Arizona State Sun Devils on Friday night after this, but given the rivalry game aspect, I am not worried about them looking ahead. They took their foot off the gas against Abilene Christian last weekend, but were winning 28-0 at halftime, saving their legs for this contest. However, lead running back Kevorian Barnes did not practice on Tuesday, and is questionable for this weekend’s showdown.

The Horned Frogs are deep at that position, but Barnes is the go-to guy, and it would be a major blow to the TCU rushing attack.

Matchup Information – SMU vs. TCU – September 20

Venue & Location: Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth. TX)
Date: Saturday, September 20, 2025
Kick Off: 12:00 p.m. Eastern
Broadcast: ESPN2

SMU vs. TCU Betting Odds

Odds are courtesy of BetOnline, one of our favorite online sportsbooks, as of September 20, 2025 at 8:46 a.m. eastern. Sign up today with Promo Code BNBOL55 for a 55% deposit bonus.

Spread

SMU +7 (-120)
TCU -7 (+100)

Moneyline

SMU +195
TCU -235

Total

Over 63.5 (-110)
Under 63.5 (-110)

I have strong feelings that TCU wins this matchup, although I am hoping my judgement isn’t clouded due to my resentment towards the Mustangs for melting down against Baylor. But that loss showed me they can’t close. Personally, I was scared off of TCU in Week 1, and shouldn’t have been.

I think we see plenty of back and forth in this contest, as SMU’s defense couldn’t stop a nose bleed, and the Horned Frogs electric offense is capable of putting up 40+ in this game. Their team total over 34.5 (-125) is very enticing, but I’ll take a different route.

SMU vs. TCU NCAA Football Picks and Predictions

Josh Hoover has four touchdowns and over 300 passing yards last weekend - SMU TCU Picks

Josh Hoover had four touchdowns and over 300 passing yards last weekend

SMU vs. TCU Prediction: TCU Wins and Covers, Over 63.5

Best Bet: Josh Hoover Over 2.5 Passing Touchdowns (+130) BetOnline

We are getting the best line on the market by far. I have seen this at +125 and +120 for the most part, but some books even posted +105. To me that may be a little telling that Hoover gets this done.

Whether or not Barnes plays, TCU shouldn’t have a problem moving the ball and scoring points. They like to air it out, Hoover will probably throw for 300 yards again, and even with a banged up Barnes, I see tons of opportunity to clear this line. The junior QB had three or more passing touchdowns in five games last year, and threw four on just 21 completions against Abilene Christian. TCU could very well save Barnes in this matchup and let him recover for Friday’s showdown.

SMU’s secondary let Sawyer Robertson throw for 440 yards and four touchdowns in their game, and they are giving up 8.2 yards per attempt, ranking in the bottom 40 of the nation. They are dead last in pass attempts and passing yards allowed per game, so Hoover should be able to sit back and find his wide receivers all day long. For plus money I am okay wagering on him to tear apart the Mustangs’ defense, as his passing yards could also be a play.

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SMU Mustangs vs. TCU Horned Frogs Picks and Predictions: Crosstown Foes Battle in Fort Worth