Oregon vs. Penn State Picks: Predictions and Insights

Dante Moore and the Ducks are highly motivated to make a deep run in the College Football Playoff - James Madison Oregon Odds

Dan Lanning and James Franklin go head to head for the first time since last year’s Big Ten Conference Championship as the No. 6 ranked Oregon Ducks find themselves in Happy Valley this weekend for a White Out at Beaver Stadium against the No. 3 Penn State Nittany Lions. Both teams bring perfect records into this contest, and Penn State has the benefit of being at home and are coming off a bye. Will they be able to take advantage? Or will Big Game James flop when the lights are brightest like we all expect? Check out my favorite picks and predictions below.

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#6 Oregon Ducks vs. #3 Penn State Nittany Lions NCAA Football Insights

Nicholas Singleton has 179 rushing yards and five touchdowns this year already

Oregon is 4-0 this year, and has essentially three Power Four wins, but technically just two. Now, none of these wins are overly impressive, but at least Dan Lanning has covered 3/4 games (just not the one I bet on). The Ducks beat up on Montana State, took down Oklahoma State by 66, outscored Northwestern by 20 on the road, and then just covered against their rival, beating the Oregon State Beavers by 34. They have allowed just three touchdowns in three games against FBS opponents, and facing Penn State off a bye won’t be easy, but I’m sure they’ve had it circled.

It’s the first real test for both teams, but Penn State REALLY hasn’t played anyone. The Nittany Lions beat Nevada, FIU and Villanova, allowing just 17 points total while scoring 44 per game themselves. But how much can we really take from these wins? Drew Allar and company haven’t seen a real opponent, the offensive line and running game haven’t faced adversity at all, and this could be a wake up call for the team as a whole.

Plus we all know how James Franklin can’t win the big games, and this is certainly a big game.

Matchup Information – Oregon vs. Penn State – September 27

Venue & Location: Beaver Stadium (University Park, PA)
Date: Saturday, September 27, 2025
Kick Off: 7:30 p.m. Eastern
Broadcast: NBC

Oregon vs. Penn State Betting Odds

Odds are courtesy of BetOnline, one of our favorite online sportsbooks, as of September 24, 2025 at 5:37 p.m. eastern. Sign up today with Promo Code BNBOL55 for a 55% deposit bonus.

Spread

Oregon +3.5 (-115)
Penn State -3.5 (-105)

Moneyline

Oregon +145
Penn State -165

Total

Over 51.5 (-110)
Under 51.5 (-110)

Yes, Penn State is at home. Sure, they are coming off a bye week. I do not care. The Ducks have been overlooked (in my eyes) this year, as everyone was talking about Ohio State, Penn State and even Illinois, Indiana and USC over this team in the Big Ten. Plus, Georgia, Alabama, LSU, Miami and Texas were all getting talked about as National Championship contenders preseason while I didn’t hear much chatter about the Ducks… Out of respect to the Tiger backers, I certainly won’t mention how wrong people were about Clemson. That would be rude of me, so I’ll leave alone the fact that Clemson and Cade Klubnik have sucked this year.

There might have been question marks surrounding Dante Moore before things kicked off, but he’s proven himself as a strong FBS starter. He’s completing nearly 75% of his passes for 962 yards and 11 touchdowns with just one interception. The 6’3″ redshirt sophomore has added 87 yards on the ground as well, taking just one sack all year. Sure, the offense will finally be tested, but I like the underdog catching points in what I expect to be a low scoring game.

#6 Oregon vs. #3 Penn State NCAA Football Picks and Predictions

Dan Lanning and the Ducks face Penn State in happy Valley this Saturday

Oregon vs. Penn State Prediction: Oregon Wins Outright, Under 51.5

Best Bet: Oregon +3.5 (-115) BetOnline

While my best bet is the Ducks on the spread, I don’t think we need the points. I’ll also be on them outright as well at +150 on EveryGame for a half unit. Oregon is going to be quacking on Saturday Night. And I really can’t believe people are backing Big Game James to cover this spread with the hook.

The Ducks have produced 500 yards of offense in 3/4 games this year, with just the one turnover. They are far more battle tested than the Nittany Lions, and ultimately I trust Dan Lanning over James Franklin in this spot. I understand Lanning doesn’t have the best record as an underdog, but they are living with the loss in last year’s College Football Playoff to a conference opponent, and they know how big this win would be going forward. I want Drew Allar to prove to me that he can throw the ball against a good defense, because Penn State relies way too much on the run.

Allar only has 626 passing yards on a 65% completion rate with four touchdowns and a pick this season. Yes, they have a great offensive line and two senior stud running backs, but the Ducks front seven can compete with the best. They gave up 1.7 yards per rush to Montana State, 3.4 to the Cowboys and just 2.6 to the Beavers, holding all three of those teams under 150 yards on the ground, and two under 75.

If Penn State can’t move the ball on the ground, they will have to turn to Allar’s arm, and I am willing to bet that he isn’t equipped to lead the Lions to victory with all that pressure on him.

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#6 Oregon vs. #3 Penn State Picks and Predictions: Will Big Game James Come Through?