As November approaches, Ohio State, Indiana, and Oregon appear to be head and shoulders above the rest of the Big Ten. But below the Buckeyes, Hoosiers, and Ducks, there are currently eight 5-2 teams, five of whom are 3-1 in conference play. One of the more surprising teams in that quintet is Northwestern, who will look to close its October slate with a road win vs. Nebraska tomorrow (12:00 p.m. ET, FS1).
In the media’s preseason prognostications, the Wildcats (5-2, 3-1 Big Ten) came in 17th, ahead of only Purdue.
But Northwestern has outperformed expectations thus far, losing only at Tulane, who is 6-1, and at home to Oregon, who is 6-1 and on course for another College Football Playoff berth.
Since the loss to the Ducks, the Wildcats have won four straight games, and their 22-21 win at Penn State marked the end of James Franklin’s tenure in Happy Valley.
After shutting out Purdue last week, Northwestern will try to keep the good times rolling vs. Nebraska. While the Wildcats are riding high, the Cornhuskers (5-2, 2-2 Big Ten) are coming off of a disappointing performance in a 24-6 loss at Minnesota, another of the 5-2, 3-1 teams.
Immediately after entering the AP poll for the first time in over a year, Nebraska exited the rankings after their loss to the Golden Gophers, who allowed only 213 total yards.
Will the Huskers rebound with a victory over the Wildcats? Read on for our Northwestern vs. Nebraska prediction and best bets. Also, find the best odds from top online sportsbooks such as BetOnline.
Northwestern vs. Nebraska Betting Trends
- Northwestern is 5-2 ATS this season, including 1-1 ATS on the road.
- The Wildcats are 1-2 SU and 2-1 ATS as an underdog this season, covering and winning outright at Penn State, covering in the loss to Oregon, and failing to cover at Tulane.
- The under is 6-1 in Northwestern’s games this season, with hits in both of their road games.
- Nebraska is 2-5 ATS this season, including 2-4 as a favorite.
- The Cornhuskers are 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS at home this season.
- The over is 5-2 in Nebraska’s games this season, including 4-0 in their home games.
Northwestern vs. Nebraska Prediction and Best Bets
Prediction: Northwestern to win
No quarterback has done anything of note through the air against Northwestern’s defense, which is allowing 168.6 passing yards per game at 6.3 yards per attempt and has allowed only five touchdown passes.
The weak point of the Northwestern defense is its aptitude vs. capable ground games, so the best route to victory for Nebraska may be a steady diet of running back Emmett Johnson. The Wildcats allowed 269 rushing yards against Tulane and 176 against Oregon, and if Raiola can be efficient (and stay upright), the Huskers can exploit that area effectively.
Speaking of the ground game, that is also the area for the Northwestern offense to exploit vs. Nebraska. The Huskers allowed 202 rushing yards to Cincinnati, 286 to Michigan, and 186 to Minnesota. Last week, Darius Taylor picked a fine time to have his best game since the 2023 Quick Lane Bowl, rushing for 148 yards on 24 carries.
The Wildcats have not one, not two, but three running backs who could hurt the Huskers. In last week’s 19-0 win over Purdue, Caleb Komolafe, Joseph Himon II, and Dashun Reeder combined for 205 yards on 39 attempts. Their success will be key to keeping QB Preston Stone from having to do too much.
Stone had a combined six picks and no touchdown passes in Northwestern’s losses to Tulane and Oregon, but he played turnover-free ball in the win at Penn State. If he can repeat that vs. Nebraska, it will go a long way for Northwestern.
Ultimately, this is a game that the Huskers should win. But with a win at Penn State under their belts and a ground game capable of grinding down Nebraska’s defense, I like Northwestern’s chances to win in Lincoln.
Northwestern vs. Nebraska Best Bets
1) Northwestern +7 (+100 at BetOnline)
Even if Northwestern does not pull out the win vs. Nebraska, I don’t see the Huskers winning convincingly. If the Wildcats run the ball like they should, and their defense performs like it has for the most part, Nebraska will have little opportunity to pull away.
2) Northwestern Team Total Over 17.5 Points (-113 at Lucky Rebel)
The better move might be to take the under on Nebraska’s team total (which is 25.5), and I recommend that as well.
But I am rather close to this month’s under quota, so I must go this direction.
That comment is made mostly in jest, but on a more serious note, Nebraska has allowed 27, 27, 31, and 24 points thus far in Big Ten play, and they have done so against teams ranked 11th (Michigan), 13th (Michigan State), 12th (Maryland), and 14th (Minnesota) in the conference in points per game.
So, there’s plenty of reason to make this pick with confidence, even with Northwestern (22.7 PPG) currently tied for 15th in the Big Ten in scoring.
3) Griffin Wilde Over 51.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at Bovada)
Instead of joining his former head coach at Washington State or his former quarterback at Iowa, Wilde opted to make the move to Evanston after a stellar sophomore season at South Dakota State.
And while Northwestern’s passing attack has not been anything special, the move has worked out rather swimmingly. The Wildcats are winning, and Wilde has played a significant role in that success. He has 36 catches for 516 yards, and after not finding the end zone in the first three games, he has scored in each game of Northwestern’s win streak.
Against Purdue, Wilde had a season-low 47 yards. However, one of his four catches went for a 12-yard touchdown in the third quarter.
No Northwestern pass-catcher has more than 15 catches, so even if Stone doesn’t rack up a lot of yards, there’s a good chance Wilde still gets enough opportunities to get this over the line. After all, he had done it in every game until last week with Stone throwing for 163 or fewer yards in four of those games.
Also, Wilde’s status as Stone’s top target by far means you should also lock in his anytime touchdown scorer odds, which come in at +175 at the same sportsbook.
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