#24 North Texas vs. #20 Tulane Picks and Predictions: AAC Championship

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Jon Sumrall and Tulane made the field of 12 for this year's College Football Playoff - Tulane Ole Miss Early Odds

All eyes will be on the American Athletic Conference Championship on Friday night, as two teams essentially play for a spot in the playoff. Both the No. 20 Tulane Green Wave and No. 24 North Texas Mean Green are ranked ahead of likely Sun Belt Champion, the James Madison Dukes, meaning the AAC will be the G5 representative in the College Football Playoff. There’s still a way for the Dukes to sneak in, but as for this game on Friday, these teams know what’s at stake: a spot in the field of 12. Let’s get into our favorite picks.

More NCAA Football Coverage

Go check out what else I’ve got on the slate for conference championship weekend, and view the latest odds at the best online sportsbooks.

#24 North Texas Mean Green vs. #20 Tulane Green Wave NCAA Football Insights

Jake Retzlaff has Tulane one win away from the College Football Playoff - North Texas Tulane Picks

Jake Retzlaff has Tulane one win away from the College Football Playoff

Both teams avoided each other during the AAC regular season, and ended up going 7-1 in conference play. Tulane sits at 10-2 with North Texas at 11-1, as the Green Wave’s losses came to Ole Miss and UTSA on the road, while the Mean Green lost to South Florida at home. Since that loss? They’ve won six straight, scoring 50+ in five of those six contests. Can Tulane slow them down?

Good news for the Green Wave, this game is at home at Yulman Stadium. Good news for both teams, despite their head coaches leaving next season, both have been allowed to coach their team through the conference championship and potentially the CFP. Both Eric Morris and Jon Sumrall are moving up the ladder, as Morris was hired at Oklahoma State and Sumrall will coach next year at Florida. However, both coaches will be fully focused on getting their current team into the field of 12.

Matchup Information – North Texas vs. Tulane – December 5

  • Venue & Location: Yulman Stadium (New Orleans, LA)
  • Date: Friday, December 5, 2025
  • Kick Off: 8:00 p.m. Eastern
  • Broadcast: ABC

North Texas vs. Tulane Betting Odds

Odds are courtesy of BetOnline, one of our favorite online sportsbooks, as of December 3, 2025 at 6:29 p.m. eastern. Sign up today with Promo Code BNBOL55 for a 55% deposit bonus. BetOnline offers a wide variety of unique markets across nearly every sport imaginable.

Spread

  • North Texas -2.5 (-113)
  • Tulane +2.5 (-107)

Moneyline

  • North Texas -135
  • Tulane +115

Total

  • Over 66 (-110)
  • Under 66 (-110)

Tulane is ranked higher thus they get to host this conference championship, yet they still find themselves as 2.5 point underdogs at Yulman Stadium. Although I have been a Green Wave fan all season long, and preached that they would appear in the College Football Playoff, I think this line is a little telling. And I’ll be betting this game as such.

#24 North Texas vs. #20 Tulane NCAA Football Picks and Predictions

Drew Mestemaker and the Green Wave are tough to stop through the air - North Texas Tulane Picks

Drew Mestemaker and the Green Wave are tough to stop through the air

North Texas vs. Tulane Prediction: North Texas Wins and Covers, Over 66

Best Bet: North Texas -2.5 (-113) BetOnline

My heart says Tulane, but my brain tells me it’s the Mean Green. We have a high total in this game, leading me to believe we will see tons of points. In my opinion, North Texas is better equipped to handle a shootout. They lead the country in yards and points per game, ranking top 15 in yards per carry and top 20 in third down conversions. This team isn’t afraid to throw it, and Drew Mestemaker will be able to pick apart the Tulane secondary.

The Green Wave ranks north of 100 in most defensive categories regarding the secondary. They are No. 122 in opponent completion percentage (bottom 15), No. 113 in passing yards allowed per game (251.9), and are outside the top 75 in yards per pass and opponent third down conversion rate. Simply put, they do not have the defensive unit to slow down the Mean Green’s air raid attack.

Offensively, all Tulane does is run, doing so over 53% of the time. They do it fairly well, and North Texas couldn’t stop a nosebleed on the ground. However I see the Green Wave turning to Retzlaff’s arm in order to keep up, which they’ll fail to do. While the Mean Green have a bottom 15-20 rushing defense, their secondary certainly is one of the best in the country.

Again, I see this being a shootout, but I can’t quite back this over. Even as a guy that has no problem paying the juiceman on the moneyline with short spreads, I think the 2.5 is safe given the amount of points we will see in this game.

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