This week’s college football schedule features several important FBS games, including three ranked matchups in the SEC. But the biggest game on the schedule may be a No. 2 vs. No. 1 matchup in the FCS, as the division’s preeminent powers will face off in Brookings, South Dakota. There, the 118th installment of the North Dakota State vs. South Dakota State rivalry will take part of the national spotlight tonight (8:00 p.m. ET, ESPNU).
When last they met, NDSU defeated SDSU 28-21 in the semifinals of last season’s FCS playoffs on the way to winning its 10th FCS championship in 14 seasons.
The second-ranked Bison (7-0, 4-0 Missouri Valley Football Conference) and top-ranked Jackrabbits (7-0, 3-0 MVFC) may be bound for another postseason matchup, and tonight’s battle in Brookings will play a role in how the two teams are seeded in this season’s bracket.
It will also decide where the Dakota Marker will reside for the next year. The two teams have been playing since 1903 (and every season since 1946) but have played for the Marker since they both moved to Division I in 2004.
Since that time, NDSU is 16-11 against SDSU, 11-10 in the regular season and 5-1 in the playoffs. But the Jackrabbits have won five of the last seven meetings, including each of the last two in Brookings, as well as the 2023 FCS title game in Frisco, Texas.
Who will take the trophy and bragging rights tonight in Brookings? Read on for our North Dakota State vs. South Dakota State prediction and picks, as well as the best betting odds from top online sportsbooks such as BetOnline.
North Dakota State vs. South Dakota State Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| North Dakota State | -6 (-110) | -215 | Over 59 (+100) |
| South Dakota State | +6 (-110) | +183 | Under 59 (-120) |
North Dakota State vs. South Dakota State Prediction and Picks
Prediction: South Dakota State to win
This will be the third No. 1 vs. No. 2 Dakota Marker matchup in the last four seasons, following meetings in Fargo in 2022 (a 23-21 win for No. 2 SDSU) and 2024 (a 13-9 for No. 2 NDSU).
If this matchup goes like the last two did, North Dakota State will win for a third straight time vs. South Dakota State.
The tea leaves certainly read positively for the Bison, who have been dominant in their 7-0 start. They have outscored opponents 305 to 70, winning every game by 17+ points and scoring at least 33 points in every game while allowing no more than 17 points in any game.
The offense is led by senior quarterback Cole Payton, who has completed 74.6% of his passes for 1,565 yards and 11 touchdowns (with only one interception) and run for 475 yards and six touchdowns.
On the other side of the North Dakota State vs. South Dakota State matchup, there is a big question mark surrounding the starting quarterback position.
Last Five North Dakota State vs. South Dakota State Meetings
- December 21, 2024: North Dakota State 28-21
- October 19, 2024: North Dakota State 13-9
- November 4, 2023: South Dakota State 33-16
- January 8, 2023: South Dakota State 45-21
- October 15, 2022: South Dakota State 23-21
In last week’s 35-14 win over Murray State, starting QB Chase Mason was injured early and did not return. Backup Luke Marble, a transfer from Northern Illinois, took over and was 13 for 21 for 189 yards with two touchdowns and an interception.
According to a report from ESPN’s Pete Thamel this morning, Mason has less than a 50% chance of playing today, so Marble could be in line to make his first collegiate start in a No. 2 vs. No. 1 rivalry matchup.
The Jackrabbits have one of the top running backs in the FCS in Julius Loughridge, who is averaging 102 yards per game and has scored six touchdowns. They also have a defense that entered this week second in the FCS in red zone defense, interceptions (12), and total takeaways (18), eighth in yards allowed per game, and 15th in yards allowed per play.
However, North Dakota State is tops in the FCS in total defense, allowing an average of just 229 yards per game, and allowed just 313 yards and forced three turnovers in a recent 45-17 win over Southern Illinois, who has one of the best offenses in the FCS.
South Dakota State may be at home tonight, but with the uncertainty surrounding Mason, it’s hard to pick against North Dakota State.
North Dakota State vs. South Dakota State Picks
1) North Dakota State/South Dakota State Under 45.5 (-110 at Lucky Rebel)
Even if Mason bucks the percentages and does play, with two top defenses on the field, I don’t see a high-scoring contest. It could very well be a close shave, so a few extra points to play with would be nice, but the outlook from here does not favor the over.
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