Navy vs. Memphis Picks and Predictions: Thanksgiving College Football

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Brendon Lewis and Memphis host Navy to close out their AAC regular season - Navy Memphis Picks

Thanksgiving Day is known for three marquee NFL matchups, but there’s also some college kids battling it out on the gridiron on Thursday. Plus, this game has major College Football Playoff implications, because we’re dealing with two of the top teams in the American Athletic Conference. One of which might be the Group of 5 representative in the 12 team field. Check out our favorite picks below as the Memphis Tigers host the Navy Midshipmen.

Go check out what else I’ve got on the slate for Week 14, and view the latest odds at the best online sportsbooks.

Navy Midshipmen vs. Memphis Tigers NCAA Football Insights

Blake Horvath is 14 rushing yards away from two straight 1,000 rushing seasons - Navy Memphis Picks

Blake Horvath is 14 rushing yards away from two straight 1,000 rushing seasons

Navy sits at 6-1 in the AAC, and a win would put them in a great position to make the conference championship. However, Tulane and North Texas both have the opportunity to be 7-1 as well, and the Mean Green beat Navy, meaning they would have the head to head tie breaker. The Midshipmen need one of the two to lose, but all they can do is beat Memphis and hope for the best. But Memphis won’t go down so easy.

The Tigers are 8-3 this year after losing two straight in AAC play. It is their Senior Night on Thanksgiving. The team’s families will be packing the stands, and they’ll want to end their season on a high note after spending the past month coming back down to Earth. There’s not much to play for but pride, however, if anyone can fire up their team at home, it’s Ryan Silverfield.

Matchup Information – Navy vs. Memphis – November 27

  • Venue & Location: Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, TN)
  • Date: Thursday, November 27, 2025
  • Kick Off: 7:30 p.m. Eastern
  • Broadcast: ESPN

Navy vs. Memphis Betting Odds

Odds are courtesy of BetOnline, one of our favorite online sportsbooks, as of November 25, 2025 at 4:08 p.m. eastern. Sign up today with Promo Code BNBOL55 for a 55% deposit bonus. BetOnline offers a wide variety of unique markets across nearly every sport imaginable.

Spread

  • Navy +5 (-110)
  • Memphis -5 (-110)

Moneyline

  • Navy +165
  • Memphis -190

Total

  • Over 58.5 (-105)
  • Under 58.5 (-115)

Navy is hilarious to look at from a betting angle. This team is just 3-7 against the spread, yet they are 8-2 to the over this season. This is the shortest underdog Navy has been all year, but they struggled to cover the +6.5 against North Texas on the road. The Tigers are 8-3 against the spread, and are 7-4 to the over as well.

So one really good ATS team who is favored at home, against a road underdog who is horrendous at covering spreads. Hmm… Seems real hard. Let’s try not to overthink it.

Navy vs. Memphis NCAA Football Picks and Predictions

Sutton Smith has 644 rushing yards on just 96 carries along with seven touchdowns this season - Memphis Navy Picks

Sutton Smith has 644 rushing yards on just 96 carries along with seven touchdowns this season

Navy vs. Memphis Prediction: Memphis Wins and Covers, Over 58.5

Best Bet: Memphis -5 (-110) BetOnline

If you want to stop Navy, you have to stop the run. They rush the ball over 75% of the time and do so for over six yards per carry. Despite hardly ever passing the ball, they actually led the nation in yards per pass. Defensively, they really aren’t all that great.

Memphis is equipped to take them down. They are a top 30 rushing defense, giving up less than four yards per carry. And offensively I see them tearing apart the Midshipmen. The Tigers are top 12 in completion percentage, top 15 in points per play, and are top 25 in yards per game and yards per cary. They are able to move the ball in bunches, and Navy can’t do the same without an air raid attack.

Navy’s defense is bottom 10 in opponent completion percentage and yards per pass allowed, and are bottom 15 in yards per play allowed. Plus they are north of 95 (bottom 40) in sacks, interceptions, third down conversion defense and points per play. At home, on Thanksgiving and Senior Night, the Tigers will take it to the Midshipmen, securing a third straight nine win season.

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