#3 Miami vs. #18 Florida State Picks and Predictions: Sunshine State Showdown

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Tommy Castellanos and the Seminoles have been horrendous on the road this year - Florida State NC State Picks

The Miami Hurricanes carry their No. 3 ranking up to Tallahassee this weekend as they face the No. 18 Florida State Seminoles for an ACC battle with huge implications. The Seminoles just went down in Charlottesville, losing in double overtime, which was their first taste of defeat this season. It also came during their opening conference game, making the sting that much worse. Now they have to pick themselves up and get ready for an undefeated Hurricane to strike Doak Campbell Stadium. Will they be able to figure it out with Miami coming off a bye week? Dive into our favorite picks below to find out.

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#3 Miami Hurricanes vs. #18 Florida State Seminoles NCAA Football Insights

The Seminoles were off to a very hot start. After upsetting Alabama by 14 points as two touchdown underdogs, they handled business against East Texas A&M and Kent State. However, in their first road test, they played a frisky Virginia Cavaliers team, and went down in heartbreaking fashion, 46-38. We still aren’t sure if that poor FSU receiver made it out of that field storm alive.

On the other side we have a renewed Carson Beck and the Miami Hurricanes. They started off the year beating a good Notre Dame Fighting Irish squad at home, and the final score doesn’t do it justice. The hosts dominated from start to finish. Then they whooped up on Bethune-Cookman, South Florida, and the Florida Gators, but all four of their games have been at home. Yes, they are coming off a bye, but did they get too comfy in Hard Rock Stadium? Especially facing a Florida State team that knows they need near perfection from here on out in order to make the ACC Championship.

Matchup Information – Miami vs. Florida State – October 4

  • Venue & Location: Doak Campbell Stadium (Tallahassee, FL)
  • Date: Saturday, October 4, 2025
  • Kick Off: 7:30 p.m. Eastern
  • Broadcast: ABC

Miami vs. Florida State Betting Odds

Odds are courtesy of BetOnline, one of our favorite online sportsbooks, as of October 2, 2025 at 5:45 p.m. eastern. Sign up today with Promo Code BNBOL55 for a 55% deposit bonus.

Spread

  • Miami -4 (-110)
  • Florida State +4 (-110)

Moneyline

  • Miami -180
  • Florida State +157

Total

  • Over 53.5 (-115)
  • Under 53.5 (-105)

We can read this one of two ways. The obvious narrative is the “bounce back spot at home” for Florida State, coming off an overtime loss. I would agree, but with all due respect to Virginia, the FSU defense gave up 35 points to the Cavaliers… imagine what this Hurricane offense can do to them.

The Seminoles let Virginia convert 7/13 third downs and they gave up 440 total yards of offense. Against Alabama, they still allowed 341 total yards, they just caught the Crimson Tide defense sleeping and took advantage. On the other side of things, Miami is coming off a bye and this is their first road test.

Will they be well rested, focused, and ready to continue their quest for perfection? Or did they get complacent and lazy, thinking “if Virginia beat ’em, we can do it in our sleep?”

#3 Miami vs. #18 Florida State NCAA Football Picks and Predictions

Carson Beck leads Miami in their first road game this Saturday - Miami Florida State Picks

Carson Beck leads Miami in their first road game this Saturday

Miami vs. Florida State Prediction: Miami Wins, Florida State Covers, Over 53.5

Best Bet: Miami ML/Carson Beck 2+ Passing TDs SGP (+100) BetOnline

Now if you don’t trust the Hurricanes, you can find Carson Beck’s Passing TDs for -145, which I wouldn’t mind paying. Take them winning out of the equation. However I think Miami is the truth. They will come very focused into this matchup, knowing how easy their schedule is the rest of the way.

The Hurricanes have already played the hardest part of their schedule, this is the last true test. They avoid the upper half of this conference. Miami does not play Georgia Tech, Virginia, Duke, or California (or Clemson). The toughest two games I see remaining on their schedule are Louisville at home, and on the road at SMU. They are coming off of and going into a bye week, only having to show up for this one game. I have 100% confidence that this Hurricanes team knows what’s at stake and how much this single contest means, especially being their first one in ACC play.

Beck cleared this line in the three games prior to facing Florida, but the ground attack was working fine. Despite FSU beating Alabama, Ty Simpson still had 254 passing yards and two touchdowns without an interception. Although Chandler Morris threw three picks in their win, the Seminole defense still let him complete 74.3% of his passes for 229 yards and two touchdowns as well.

I expect the Miami quarterback to have similar success as he leads his team to another win.

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