#10 LSU vs. #17 Vanderbilt Picks and Predictions: Commodores Finally Favored

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Diego Pavia and the Commodores host the LSU Tigers this Saturday - LSU Vanderbilt Picks

It’s been a long time since the No. 17 ranked Vanderbilt Commodores were favored in an SEC matchup, but this Saturday when they host the No. 10 LSU Tigers, Vandy is laying some points. Both teams bring 5-1 records into this contest, while the Tigers are 2-1 in SEC play. Vanderbilt is coming off a bye week, and have a 1-1 conference record. They’re last outing was a loss in Tuscaloosa, and now they will try to turn things around at home against a top 10 team. Can LSU find a way to win? Find out with our favorite picks below.

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#10 LSU Tigers vs. #17 Vanderbilt Commodores NCAA Football Insights

Sure both teams are 5-1, but let’s really look at what they’ve done. LSU has a win over then No. 4, now irrelevant, Clemson on the road, and SEC wins over Florida and South Carolina at home. They have wins over Louisiana Tech and SE Louisiana, but lost their first conference contest in Oxford, dropping one to the Rebels 24-19. They’ve only covered spreads against the Tigers, Gators and Gamecocks, and Vandy is coming off a bye.

The Commodores started off with five straight wins, including one on the road to then No. 11 South Carolina (who is about as irrelevant as Clemson). Vanderbilt covered four straight spreads to start the season, but failed to do so in their last two. And they did lose to No. 10 Alabama, who is clearly a national championship contender. They’ve had a bye week to recoup from the loss, but this is the second of four straight ranked opponents on their schedule, so things don’t get any easier.

Matchup Information – LSU vs. Vanderbilt – October 18

  • Venue & Location: FirstBank Stadium (Nashville, TN)
  • Date: Saturday, October 18, 2025
  • Kick Off: 12:00 p.m. Eastern
  • Broadcast: ABC

LSU vs. Vanderbilt Betting Odds

Odds are courtesy of BetOnline, one of our favorite online sportsbooks, as of October 16, 2025 at 2:47 p.m. eastern. Sign up today with Promo Code BNBOL55 for a 55% deposit bonus. BetOnline offers a wide variety of unique markets across nearly every sport imaginable.

Spread

  • LSU +2.5 (+100)
  • Vanderbilt -2.5 (-120)

Moneyline

  • LSU +120
  • Vanderbilt -140

Total

  • Over 49 (-110)
  • Under 49 (-110)

Although the LSU offense hasn’t been overly impressive, their defense has been. Facing the Commodores on the road will be a very tough test, but I see them living up to the challenge. As for Vanderbilt, they turned the ball over twice against Alabama and only totaled 333 yards of offense. Against LSU, time of possession will be a key for them as they let the Tide have over 15 more minutes of possession.

#10 LSU vs. #17 Vanderbilt NCAA Football Picks and Predictions

West Weeks and the LSU defense are No. 4 in points allowed per game - LSU Vanderbilt Picks

West Weeks and the LSU defense are No. 4 in points allowed per game

LSU vs. Vanderbilt Prediction: Vanderbilt Wins and Covers, Under 49

Best Bet: LSU/Vanderbilt Under 49 (-110) BetOnline

Ultimately, I see the defenses showing out. The LSU Tigers are 5-1 to the under this year, holding Clemson, Florida and South Carolina all to just 10 points. Defensively, they rank No. 4 in points allowed per game, giving up just 12.2, but offensively, we haven’t seen it quite yet. Garrett Nussmeier and company are bottom 40 in scoring, putting up less than 20 per contest.

However, stopping Vandy means stopping the run, and they can do that. LSU is top 20 in yards allowed per carry (3.3), and they are much better in the trenches than the secondary on defense. Look for them to force Diego Pavia to beat them with his arm.

The Commodores are coming off a bye, and are 2-0 to the under in SEC play. This team leads the country in yards per carry (6.7), but are bottom 40 in rushes per game. They’ve been leaning more on Pavia to throw the ball this year, and so far it’s worked, but I have my doubts this week. Defensively, Vanderbilt is top 50 in both yards per carry and yards per pass allowed, and given that I expect the hosts to hoard the ball for as long as possible, I don’t think the Tigers will score much.

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