Liberty vs. UTEP: Playoff baseball might be stealing headlines this week, but I have my sights set elsewhere. Midweek college football returns, and that means one thing…player props are back on the menu. There is something special about diving into a Wednesday night game that few are watching, finding value where others see chaos. With baseball winding down, I am itching to get back to my roots and break down a hidden gem. It is not pretty, but it is profitable. Liberty at UTEP might not sound glamorous, yet this matchup holds one of my favorite plays of the week.
Check out the latest odds at the best online sportsbooks. Plus, it’s not too late to add more futures to your portfolio so take some time to check out our Power Four Conference Previews below.
Write Up Transparency
Be sure to follow me on X/Twitter @ColbyMBets to get my full card every day! Picks are always FREE.
Week 6 Results: 4-3 (+0.7u)
2025 Season Record: 23-17 (+2.26u)
Liberty vs. UTEP Betting Odds
Can Malachi Nelson shock the Flames defense Wednesday night?
Odds are courtesy of BetOnline, one of our favorite online sportsbooks. Sign up today with Promo Code FREE250 for a 50% deposit bonus up to $250 as well as 100 Free Spins at the online casino.
Spread
- Liberty: -1.5 (-110)
- UTEP: +1.5 (-110)
Moneyline
- Liberty: -120
- UTEP: +100
Total
- Over 49 (-113)
- Under 49 (-107)
Liberty vs. UTEP – October 8
The itch will finally be scratched this week. I miss midweek college football player props. Last season, I lived for those MACtion matchups, digging through player markets just to get through the week. With baseball coming to an end, it feels right to get back into that groove. I am targeting a player prop for Wednesday night in what might be the least appealing matchup of the week, Liberty at UTEP. I am not sure even a mother could find beauty in this one, but I did.
Let Nelson Sling that Pill!
I have honed in on UTEP quarterback and journeyman Malachi Nelson’s passing yards prop, over 229.5. The six-foot-three quarterback has only gone over this number twice times this season, but he has faced a tough stretch of defenses. Three games ago, he took on Texas and still managed nearly 210 passing yards against one of the best secondaries in the country. In his most recent outing against Louisiana Tech, he threw for just 73 yards, but coming off a bye, I expect this to be a regroup spot for both Nelson and the Miners offense.
Liberty’s Pass Defense
Liberty’s pass defense looks strong on paper, allowing just 170.5 passing yards per game (18th nationally) and facing only 21.8 pass attempts per game (7th fewest). However, context matters. The Flames have not faced a single offense that throws at the rate UTEP does. Their opponents, Old Dominion, James Madison, Bowling Green, and Jacksonville State, all run-heavy teams, none averaging more than 30 pass attempts per game. UTEP, on the other hand, ranks seventh in the country in pass attempts, averaging nearly 42 per game, and sits 62nd in passing yards per game at 236.
For comparison, Old Dominion, which averages around 26 pass attempts per game, still managed to throw for 213 yards against Liberty. This feels like a game where the Flames’ secondary will finally be tested, and possibly exposed. When a defense spends most of its season preparing for the run, the adjustment to a high-volume passing attack can be rough.
This matchup sets up as a classic case of volume meeting opportunity. UTEP’s offense is built to throw, and Liberty’s defensive numbers feel inflated by facing one-dimensional opponents. Nelson has the arm talent and experience to take advantage of a secondary that has not yet been truly tested through the air. If game flow stays neutral and the Miners do not abandon their identity, 230 yards is a very reachable mark. Expect Nelson to settle in early, lean on short-to-intermediate throws, and chip away until he clears this number late. This feels like the right time to trust the volume.
Best Bet: Malachi Nelson Over 229.5 Pass yards (-114) odds via BetOnline
Interested in More Content?
Get FREE Picks and Props Weekly
Sign up for
THE WEEKENDER NEWSLETTER
Follow me on X @ColbyMBets for all my picks and sports opinions. Follow Betting News on ‘X’ and Twitch and catch us on stream! Betting News is also on TikTok! Follow us for more picks and news every day!
In need of a sportsbook? Check out one of our favorites below among our best online sportsbooks and sign-up for a bonus!
