Lane Kiffin Hired at LSU, Rebels College Football Playoff Hopes in Jeopardy?

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Lane Kiffin abandoned the Ole Miss Rebels after an 11-1 regular season - Lane Kiffin Ole Miss

The protagonist of college football that is Lane Kiffin made sure the last week of the regular season was all about him. After defeating Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl on Friday, capping off an 11-1 season with Ole Miss, the Rebels (former) Head Coach announced on Sunday that he will be leaving the school to accept the same vacant job at LSU. This completely shocked most of college football world (me), and it might have left the Rebels’ College Football Playoff hopes up in the air. Let’s dig in to this mess.

Lane Kiffin Accepts Head Coaching Job at LSU

Lane Kiffin has signed a contract to become the new head coach at LSU - Lane Kiffin Ole Miss

Lane Kiffin has signed a contract to become the new head coach at LSU

Kiffin accepted the job at LSU, and despite wanting to coach the remainder of the season, the athletic department said no. Kiffin was immediately on a plane to Baton Rouge and the Rebels moved on. Ole Miss defensive coordinator Peter Golding will be guiding this team through the rest of the season, but could it all be at risk? Based on the College Football Playoff Committee’s decisions in the past, things could be up in the air.

Back in the fall of 2023, just two short seasons ago, the Florida State Seminoles were led by quarterback Jordan Travis to an undefeated regular season. However, he suffered a season ending injury in their final game, knocking him out the rest of the way. Florida State went on to win the ACC Championship without him, thinking zero losses on their record would certainly be enough to get them into the field of four teams. But it wasn’t, and they were overshadowed by Michigan, Washington, Texas and Alabama who ended up playing in the 2023 CFP bracket. The committee determined that Florida State was not the same undefeated, championship caliber team without their quarterback, and thus elected to put in those four other teams.

Using that logic, we can ask the question this year… Are the Ole Miss Rebels the same 11-1, championship caliber team without Lane Kiffin at the helm? If so, great, throw them in. But if not, could they be dropped far enough that they no longer host a playoff game? Or potentially dropped from the field of 12 completely? The committee has some big decisions to make regarding this Ole Miss squad.

Current College Football Playoff Picture

As things currently stand, the field of 12 is looking to involve the following teams (in no particular order).

  • Ohio State Buckeyes
  • Indiana Hoosiers
  • Georgia Bulldogs
  • Texas A&M Aggies
  • Texas Tech Red Raiders
  • Oregon Ducks
  • Ole Miss Rebels
  • Oklahoma Sooners
  • Alabama Crimson Tide
  • Notre Dame Fighting Irish
  • Virginia Cavaliers (with an ACC Championship victory)
  • Highest Rated Group of 5 Conference Champion

Of course, this is up for debate, and this is based off of rankings prior to last weekend’s action. Personally, I think Alabama has played their way into the CFP by competing for the SEC Championship, but that head to head loss to the Sooners is still hanging over them. However, let’s focus back in on the Rebels.

Prior to last weekend, the Rebels came in ranked No. 6 in the CFP rankings. This would allow them to host a first round game in Oxford, likely against the No. 11 overall seed (hypothetically, Virginia). But, dropping just three spots would be devastating, forcing the Rebels to go on the road, potentially against Oklahoma (whom they already beat in Norman), Alabama, or Notre Dame.

All of which would be very tough environments to play in.

Ole Miss Rebels College Football Playoff Betting Odds

Trinidad Chambliss and the Rebels are still in the hunt to win the CFP Championship - Lane Kiffin Ole Miss

Trinidad Chambliss and the Rebels are still in the hunt to win the CFP Championship

How does Kiffin leaving impact the Rebels title odds? Let’s look at the current board.

Odds courtesy of BetOnline. Use Promo Code BNBOL55 for a 55% deposit bonus immediately in your account.

Odds to Win CFP Championship

  • Ohio State +160
  • Indiana +475
  • Georgia +800
  • Oregon +800
  • Texas Tech +850
  • Notre Dame +1000
  • Alabama +1200
  • Texas A&M +1200
  • Ole Miss 33-1
  • Miami 50-1
  • Oklahoma 66-1
  • BYU 300-1
  • North Texas 300-1
  • Virginia 500-1
  • Vanderbilt 750-1
  • Duke 750-1
  • Tulane 750-1

Now, if you can do some quick math, five of those teams listed won’t even make the field of 12. Ole Miss currently sits No. 9 which suggests they still get in, but at 33-1 the oddsmakers can’t imagine them making much of a run without Kiffin. It would be a disservice to those kids if the committee left Ole Miss out completely, and I still think they deserve to host a playoff game.

Yes, they may be a different team without Kiffin at the helm, but you have to reward those players. You cannot punish over 100 young adults just because their full grown head coach abandoned them after a historic season. It sucked when the committee punished the Seminoles because one man got injured, it would be even worse if they penalize a bunch of kids because of the actions of their leader (who isn’t even there anymore).

Do the right thing, give the Rebels a home playoff game, and watch this team be incredibly dangerous with a newly spared motivational flame in the locker room.

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