#14 Iowa State vs. Cincinnati Picks and Predictions: Will Bearcats Pull Off Home Win?

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Matt Campbell leads the Cyclones in their first conference road game of the season - Iowa State Cincinnati Picks

Matt Campbell leads his No. 14 ranked Iowa State Cyclones into Cincinnati this weekend to take on Brendan Sorsby and the Bearcats. The visiting Cyclones originally opened up as a 3.5 point favorites in this contest, but people are buying in on the Bearcats, as Cincinnati is currently a 1.5 point favorite. Sure, they are coming off an upset victory over the Kansas Jayhawks in Lawrence, but Iowa State is a different animal. Will they be able to keep it up at home? Let’s get into our favorite picks and find out.

Editor’s Note: My pick and prediction are still a go in this match, even though the line has ticked up slightly.

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#14 Iowa State Cyclones vs. Cincinnati Bearcats NCAA Football Insights

Brendan Sorsby and the Bearcats look to win their first home Big 12 matchup - Iowa State Cincinnati Picks

Brendan Sorsby and the Bearcats look to win their first home Big 12 matchup

Both teams come into this matchup undefeated in Big 12 play. The Bearcats are coming off a conference win against the Jayhawks on the road, and prior to that contest were 2-1 on the season. They opened things up by losing to the Nebraska Cornhuskers at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, but then handled business against Bowling Green and Northwestern State, beating those two by a combined score of 104-20. They kept it going in conference play, and now host their first Big 12 opponent at Nippert Stadium.

Iowa State is a perfect 5-0 on the year and 2-0 so far in Big 12 play. After losing in the conference championship last year, motivation should be at an all time high to get back. They obviously beat Kansas State in Dublin, took down Iowa in the Cyhawk Series, and just beat the Arizona Wildcats, along with wins over Arkansas State and South Dakota. In their first Big 12 matchup on the road, will Rocco Becht deliver?

Matchup Information – Iowa State vs. Cincinnati – October 4

  • Venue & Location: Nippert Stadium (Cincinnati, OH)
  • Date: Saturday, October 4, 2025
  • Kick Off: 12:00 p.m. Eastern
  • Broadcast: ESPN2

Iowa State vs. Cincinnati Betting Odds

Odds are courtesy of BetOnline, one of our favorite online sportsbooks, as of October 4, 2025 at 7:47 a.m. eastern. Sign up today with Promo Code BNBOL55 for a 55% deposit bonus.

Spread

  • Iowa State +1 (-108)
  • Cincinnati -1 (-112)

Moneyline

  • Iowa State -104
  • Cincinnati -116

Total

  • Over 56 (-105)
  • Under 56 (-115)

Rocco Becht hasn’t playing great this year, but he’s still led Iowa State to an undefeated record. Can he keep it up on the road? I certainly think so, because he has tons of talent around him. Losing Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel to the NFL was tough, but the Cyclone pass catchers have stepped up to fill those shoes.

Becht is completing nearly 66% of his passes for over 220 yards per contest. Plus he has a very favorable matchup this weekend against a bad secondary, so I’ll be looking to target one of his wide outs to simply do their job.

#14 Iowa State vs. Cincinnati NCAA Football Picks and Predictions

Brett Eskildsen is a deep ball threat for the Cyclones this season - Iowa State Cincinnati Picks

Brett Eskildsen is a deep ball threat for the Cyclones this season

Iowa State vs. Cincinnati Prediction: Iowa State Wins Outright, Under 55

Best Bet: Brett Eskildsen Over 26.5 Receiving Yards (-115) BetOnline

As with our player prop in the West Virginia vs. BYU matchup, we are getting some value, as the rest of the market has this listed at 29.5 for the same price.

Let’s start with the basics. Eskildsen is a deep ball threat, but he’s come through every game this year. He is one of four skill players with at least double digit receptions on the Cyclones, and leads the team with 216 receiving yards. The sophomore from Frisco has had at least two receptions in every game, clearing this number with ease. He’s posted 46, 77, 39, and 54 receiving yards this year, with his longest reception covering this number in 3/4 contests.

He’s averaging over 20 yards per reception and the focus will certainly be on Chase Sowell from the Bearcats’ perspective. Plus, the Cincinnati secondary is laughably bad this season.

There are 136 teams in the FBS this year. Cincinnati ranks No. 135 in opponent completion percentage, letting opposing quarterbacks complete over 75% of their passes. The Bearcats are also No. 121 in opponent yards per pass (9.0), No. 130 in passing yards allowed per game (320.7), and No. 114 in opponent pass play percentage, as teams know they can throw all they want on this secondary. Cincinnati has also allowed a longest reception of 24, 31, and 93 yards in their contests this season (excluding Northwestern State).

So essentially, we are asking a wideout to do much less than he already has in every game this year, against probably the worst secondary unit he’s seen this season. Let’s hope this simple math adds up to us cashing this weekend.

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