If someone said in early September that Saturday’s Indiana vs. Penn State matchup (12:00 p.m. ET, FOX) would have featured the second-ranked team in the nation and that team would be favored by two touchdowns, all but the most ardent of Indiana fans would have expected it to be Penn State. Instead, it is the Hoosiers, who head into Happy Valley looking to improve to 10-0 and inflict a sixth straight loss on the struggling Nittany Lions.
While Indiana has shown to date that last season’s run to a CFP berth was anything but a fluke, this season has not at all panned out as expected for Penn State. They outscored Nevada, FIU, and Villanova 132 to 17 in a 3-0 start, but the wheels fell off when they hit Big Ten play. An overtime loss to Oregon in their conference opener was the beginning of the end for the James Franklin era, and with quarterback Drew Allar out for the season, the team has not even had the interim coach bounce that they were on the wrong end of at UCLA in Franklin’s penultimate game last month.
With an almost incomprehensible losing season two losses from becoming a reality, the Nittany Lions welcome the Hoosiers to Beaver Stadium as an underdog by more than two touchdowns, as per BetOnline and other top online sportsbooks.
Is there any chance whatsoever that an upset could occur? Read on for our Indiana vs. Penn State prediction and best bets to see the outlook on the home team’s prospects for a positive result.
Indiana vs. Penn State Betting Trends
- Indiana is 6-3 against the spread this season, including 4-2 ATS in Big Ten play.
- The Hoosiers are 2-1 ATS on the road this season, covering at Oregon and Maryland but not at Iowa.
- The over is 6-3 in Indiana’s games this season and has hit in three straight games.
- Penn State is 1-7 against the spread this season, including 0-5 ATS at home.
- The Nittany Lions are 0-2 SU and 1-1 ATS as an underdog, losing but covering in a 25-24 loss at Iowa and losing and failing to cover in last week’s loss at Ohio State.
- The over is 6-2 in Penn State’s games this season, including 3-2 in their home games and 4-1 in their Big Ten games.
Indiana vs. Penn State Prediction and Best Bets
Prediction: Indiana to win
For the second straight game and fifth time this season, the Hoosiers hit the half-century mark last Saturday in a 55-10 win at Maryland.
Offensively, Indiana racked up 588 total yards, 367 on the ground. Defensively, they held the Terrapins to 293 total yards, forced five turnovers, and had a scoop and score.
It was another complete effort from the Hoosiers, whose only equal in the Big Ten appears to be Ohio State.
A win vs. Penn State will move Indiana a win closer to a Big Ten Championship Game matchup with No. 1 OSU (8-0, 5-0 Big Ten), though No. 21 Michigan (7-2, 5-1 Big Ten) may have something to say about that come November 29 in Ann Arbor.
A slipup could yet come from the Hoosiers, who finish up at home vs. Wisconsin next Saturday (12:00 p.m. ET, Big Ten Network) and at Purdue the day after Thanksgiving (7:30 p.m. ET, NBC/Peacock).
But it is unlikely to happen this weekend, based on both their current level of play and because of the level of their opposition.
Penn State did put up a good fight at Ohio State last week and trailed just 17-14 at halftime. But Kaytron Allen’s touchdown run with 20 seconds left in the half proved to be their final points of the game, as the Buckeyes blanked them 21-0 in the second half.
Allen found the end zone for the eighth straight game, but with quarterback Ethan Grunkemeyer not exactly lighting it up and Nicholas Singleton not his best self, there’s only so much one can expect from Penn State’s offense.
As a result, anything other than a comfortable Indiana win would be a surprising outcome.
Indiana vs. Penn State Best Bets
1) Indiana First Half -7 vs. Penn State (-125 at BetOnline)
Penn State certainly deserves some credit for at least hanging with Ohio State for a half and not getting mercilessly crushed in Columbus.
So, you can’t fully rule out a close couple of quarters in this matchup. However, Indiana will know not to underestimate or overlook a wounded team, because wounded as they may be, there is still plenty of talent present. And with the Nittany Lions finding it hard to make much happen on offense and the Hoosiers seemingly finding it easy to make a lot happen on offense, Indiana should head into the locker room at the break ahead by at least a touchdown vs. Penn State.
2) Fernando Mendoza (Indiana) 20+ Rushing Yards (-140 at Lucky Rebel)
Mendoza has been bumped off the top of the latest Heisman odds by Ohio State’s Julian Sayin, so a big game vs. Penn State in a blowout win for Indiana would be helpful from that standpoint.
Against Maryland, Mendoza was 14 for 21 for 201 yards with a touchdown and an interception and ran for 24 yards and a touchdown on four attempts.
It was the sixth time this season that Mendoza recorded at least 20 rushing yards, and I like the odds of him doing it a seventh time Saturday.
Penn State is 13th in the Big Ten in sacks (14), and the Nittany Lions are 14th in the conference in rushing yards allowed per game (159.4) and 11th in yards allowed per carry (4.2).
Mendoza doesn’t accumulate a lot of rushing attempts, but he doesn’t take many sacks (seven all season) and he has had runs of 18 and 20 yards in the last two games. So, it may take only a few attempts to get this one over the line. Taking him to tally 25+ rushing yards is tempting, but 20+ is the safe play when he doesn’t run much.
3) Roman Hemby (Indiana) Over 64.5 Rushing Yards (-115 at Bovada)
Hemby faced his former team last week, and he recorded 88 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries. Hemby has now tallied 65+ rushing yards five times in Big Ten play, and if he can get 14+ carries like he has in each of those games, this one should cash against Penn State’s defense.
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