Illinois vs. Indiana Picks for Saturday's Big Ten Showdown

Illinois takes on Wisconsin this weekend in their final road game of the year - Illinois Wisconsin Picks

During the Indiana Hoosiers remarkable run last season, they did not have to play their next door neighbor, the Illinois Fighting Illini. A short two and a half hour drive separates these two schools, who played their first game against each other back in October of 1899. Illinois was victorious at home in their last meeting in 2023, but the Illini have not won in Bloomington since 2011. Will Bret Bielema lead his team to a much needed Big Ten win? Let’s find out with our favorite picks.

Editor’s Note: I am still waiting until kickoff to bet this, but my thinking is still the same.. wait for a full touchdown if we can get it.

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#9 Illinois Fighting Illini vs. #19 Indiana Hoosiers NCAA Football Insights

How will Cal transfer, Fernando Mendoza perform in his first Big Ten contest?

Illinois has had a couple of cupcake wins at home, beating the Western Illinois Leathernecks 52-3 in their opener, and shutting out Western Michigan last week, 38-0. However in between those games they did get a Power Four road win by obliterating the Duke Blue Devils in Durham, 45-19. Personally, I don’t think it’s that great of a win, because I am very low on Duke (successfully faded them twice, no big deal), but, I am VERY high on the Illini. However, this will be a very tough battle against the Hoosiers.

Indiana has tons of intangibles on their side. They’ve heard the talking heads all offseason… “Last year was a fluke”… “They had too much roster turnover”… “Let’s see them do it against a real conference schedule”… But so far this year, the Hoosiers have shut the haters up. Now, wins over Old Dominion, Kennesaw State and Indiana State aren’t impressive at all (2-1 ATS). However, California transfer Fernando Mendoza is off to a great start.

He has over 700 passing yards completing over 72% of his passes with nine touchdowns and zero picks so far. Indiana has added plenty of help on the ground with 923 rushing yards and eight touchdowns as a team, making the junior quarterback’s job a little easier. But how will he do in his first Big Ten test against a top 10 opponent?

Matchup Information – Illinois vs. Indiana – September 20

Venue & Location: Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)
Date: Saturday, September 20, 2025
Kick Off: 7:30 p.m. Eastern
Broadcast: NBC/Peacock

Illinois vs. Indiana Betting Odds

Odds are courtesy of BetOnline, one of our favorite online sportsbooks, as of September 20, 2025 at 8:42 a.m. eastern. Sign up today with Promo Code BNBOL55 for a 55% deposit bonus.

Spread

Illinois +6.5 (-103)
Indiana -6.5 (-117)

Moneyline

Illinois +215
Indiana -260

Total

Over 52.5 (-115)
Under 52.5 (-105)

We are certainly do for some back and forth in my eyes, as both teams are putting up 41.5 points per game. On the flip side, their defenses are also giving up less than two touchdowns. In a conference opener, I certainly like to lean with the under (see my reasoning in Texas Tech vs. Utah), but am afraid we will see a shootout.

Neither team’s defense or offense have been tested yet this year, and there could certainly be jitters from both sides. But looking at this spread… I really can’t believe they are giving a top 10 team that many. It’s a little disrespectful, again, coming from a guy high on the Illini.

#9 Illinois vs. #19 Indiana NCAA Football Picks and Predictions

Bret Bielema and the Illini could sneak their way into the Big Ten Championship

Illinois vs. Indiana Prediction: Illinois Wins Outright, Over 52.5

Best Bet: Illinois +6.5 (-103) BetOnline

Listen up, I have not bet this yet. This number has been climbing all week, and I will patiently wait until kick off if I have to. I want a full touchdown. Looking at the market, there are plenty of +6s and +6.5s available, but I could see it ticking up. If I have to settle for just the touchdown and not the PAT, so be it. But I’ll wait.

I also will NOT be on Illinois’ ML even though I think they win this game outright. Simply because I already have their season win total over 8.5 at +150. With games against No. 25 USC and No. 1 Ohio State still upcoming, I’ll need this one for some cushion in case they drop a cheap one. Now, I don’t need to fully double down, but I’ll back them as this big of an underdog. It is simply too many points.

The Illini rushing defense is top 40 in the country, giving up less than 100 yards per game and only 3.4 per rush. I’m not sure Indiana will have much success running the football, and they’ll have to turn to Mendoza’s arm. While he has faced tough opponents in the PAC-12 (RIP) and in the ACC last year, Big Ten football is different. Consider this game his “Welcome to the Conference” moment as Luke Altmyer leads Illinois to a big upset on the road.

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#9 Illinois vs. #19 Indiana Picks and Predictions: Big Ten Battle in Bloomington