The powerhouse that is the SEC has once again blessed us with an amazing matchup in the conference championship. The Georgia Bulldogs have now made their 4th straight SEC Title Game, but this time they are the betting underdog, as the new kids on the SEC block roll into Atlanta, the #2 ranked Texas Longhorns.
Now, these two teams already played once in Austin this season, and things weren’t pretty for the Longhorns. Georgia came into town as 5 point underdogs and beat their hosts by 15 points, holding Texas to that same number of points scored. That was the Longhorns’ only loss of the season, and one of two times their offense was held under 20 points.
Like I said, that game was in Austin, and while this one isn’t at Sanford Stadium, it is in Atlanta. A stadium that the Bulldogs are very familiar with, and have won in before. While I do expect Longhorn fans to travel, it might feel like more of a home game for Georgia, which is certainly in their favor as they look to beat a Top 2 team twice this season.
Will Carson Beck be able to take down Texas again? Or will Quinn Ewers and the Longhorns get their revenge and take down the Top Dawgs in the SEC when it matters?
#5 Georgia Bulldogs vs #2 Texas Longhorns: SEC Championship
Can Ewers and the Longhorns take down the Bulldogs in the SEC Championship?
Matchup Information – Georgia vs Texas
- Venue & Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta, GA)
- Date: Saturday, December 7th, 2024
- Kick Off: 4:00pm Eastern
- Broadcast: ABC
Betting Odds
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Spread
- Georgia +2.5 (-102)
- Texas -2.5 (-118)
Money Line
- Georgia +123
- Texas -143
Total
- Over 49.5 (-110)
- Under 49.5 (-110)
Will Bulldogs Give Longhorns Proper SEC Welcome Again?
Will the Bulldogs take down Texas again?
First and foremost, let’s just take a look at each of these team’s schedules. We will start with the one loss Longhorns.
- @ #10 Michigan, 31-12 Win
- vs #18 Oklahoma*, 34-3 Win
- vs #5 Georgia, 30-15 Loss
- @ #25 Vanderbilt, 27-24 Win
- @ #20 Texas A&M, 17-7 Win
Now how about them Dawgs?
- vs #14 Clemson*, 34-3 Win
- @ #4 Alabama, 41-34 Loss
- @ #1 Texas, 30-15 Win
- @ #16 Ole Miss, 28-10 Loss
- vs #7 Tennessee, 31-17 Win
Both have played 4 other ranked opponents. Sure, Texas went 4-0 while Georgia went 2-2, but let’s look at the difference in competition.
Texas’ four “ranked” wins come against teams all ending the year unranked. Sure, A&M went 8-4, but Vandy and OU went just 6-6, while the Wolverines ended the year 7-5 with a win over Ohio State. You can argue until you’re blue in the face about the “revenge narrative”, but coming from a guy with a Longhorns to win the SEC future, this Saturday is going to be tough.
Georgia already spanked Texas once on their home turf, and now they get them in their home state. The Bulldogs shutdown a Clemson team who is playing in the ACC Championship. Yes, it was Week 1. It’s still a 31 point victory against a probable playoff team. They lost to Alabama in Tuscaloosa, which is basically a coin flip. And again, another probable playoff team (although I vehemently disagree ). They lost to a very good Ole Miss team on the road who will just miss the playoffs, and then beat, yet another, probable CFP team in the Tennessee Volunteers.
Like I said, I have a Texas future in my back pocket, so I find myself in a win-win scenario. Regardless, I don’t think the Dawgs lose on Saturday and will be backing them on the ML, which turns out to be a beautiful hedge.
#5 Georgia Bulldogs vs #2 Texas Longhorns Best Bets
Back the Bulldogs to take down Texas again, and claim the SEC Title
Georgia vs Texas Prediction: Georgia Wins, Under 49.5
Best Bets: Georgia ML (+125) Bovada
Give me the DAWGS as underdogs. This is a similar scenario to betting Mahomes and the Chiefs as underdogs (had to get that in there). When there is a plus sign next to Georgia, take them and say thank you. I’ll be doing such this Saturday.
The Bulldogs already went on the road as 5 point underdogs and beat the Longhorns by two touchdowns. In Atlanta, in the SEC Championship, which they lost last year to miss the playoffs, I fully trust Kirby Smart and the Bulldogs to bring the heat against the Longhorns. Throughout the course of the season, they have been the more battle tested team, playing a much harder schedule. Even though they are coming off an 8OT victory against Georgia Tech, I believe those players may have been looking ahead to this matchup.
They knew it was coming, they know Texas will be looking for revenge, but I like the battle tested Bulldogs to pull off this upset in their home state.
To be clear, with a unit on Georgia at +125, and a half unit future on Texas at +350, we are going to sit back, relax, and profit 0.75 units regardless of the result. With that in mind, I think the Bulldogs win the game.
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