Two teams having very different seasons meet in South Beach for a Sunshine State Showdown as the Florida Gators of the SEC head down to take on the No. 4 ranked Miami Hurricanes of the ACC. While not in the same conference, these in-state rivals finally brought back the series last year, where the Hurricanes beat the Gators in Week 1 in the swamp. Now Florida has to go down to Hard Rock Stadium and take on a top five team. Can they do it? Let’s find out with our favorite picks in this matchup.
Editor’s Note: I cannot stress the importance of getting the key number on this total. Pay some juice if you have to in order to get the same number as me.
More NCAA Football Coverage
- #17 Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. #16 Utah Utes
- #22 Auburn Tigers vs. #11 Oklahoma Sooners
- #9 Illinois Fighting Illini vs. #19 Indiana Hoosiers
- South Carolina Gamecocks vs. #23 Missouri Tigers
- SMU Mustangs vs. TCU Horned Frogs
- Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Memphis Tigers
- West Virginia Mountaineers vs. Kansas Jayhawks
- Temple Owls vs. #18 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Go to Betting News to check out what else I’ve got on the slate for Week 4, and view the latest odds at the best online sportsbooks.
Florida Gators vs. #4 Miami Hurricanes NCAA Football Insights
Carson Beck has picked up right where Cam Ward left the Hurricanes
Florida opened up their season by shutting out the Long Island Sharks 55-0. But since then, things have taken a turn for the worst. They were upset as three possession favorites to the South Florida Bulls, losing to a team they wouldn’t even consider “little brother”. The Gators didn’t score a touchdown until the fourth quarter, but Byrum Brown led a great two minute drill to set up the game winning field goal. Then the Gators kicked off SEC play in Baton Rouge losing to the No.3 ranked LSU Tigers, 20-10.
DJ Lagway threw five interceptions, and now has more picks than touchdowns on the season.
And now he’s got to try and lead his team to victory over a top five team. I had my doubts with Miami going into this season, but they have certainly proven me wrong. They have two ranked wins already this season, beating a top 10 team in the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, as well as No. 18 South Florida last week, blowing out the Bulls 49-12.
Not to oversimplify things, but Miami beat USF 49-12, while Florida lost to USF 18-16. The Bulls were the road team in both contests. Do I need to say more?
Matchup Information – Florida vs. Miami – September 20
- Venue & Location: Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, FL)
- Date: Saturday, September 20, 2025
- Kick Off: 7:30 p.m. Eastern
- Broadcast: ABC
Florida vs. Miami Betting Odds
Odds are courtesy of BetOnline, one of our favorite online sportsbooks, as of September 20, 2025 at 8:44 a.m. eastern. Sign up today with Promo Code BNBOL55 for a 55% deposit bonus.
Spread
- Florida +7.5 (-107)
- Miami -7.5 (-113)
Moneyline
- Florida +252
- Miami -310
Total
- Over 50.5 (-110)
- Under 50.5 (-110)
As I said above, I had little faith in Miami coming into this season. I wanted to see it before I believed it from Mario Cristobal and Carson Beck, but they’ve proven me wrong, and I’ve got to give them their flowers. The offense is scoring 38 points per game, the defense is allowing just 18, and they are No. 4 in the country for a reason.
Now, I also had very little faith in Billy Napier, DJ Lagway and the Florida Gators. I did not understand the hype, and so far, it seems as if my thoughts were correct. They have yet to prove that they are a team to be threatened by this season, and going up against the Hurricanes will be too much to handle in my mind.
Florida vs. #4 Miami NCAA Football Picks and Predictions
DJ Lagway and the Gators have not done well offensively this year
Florida vs. Miami Prediction: Miami Wins and Covers, Over 50.5
Best Bet: Florida Team Total Under 21.5 (-120) BetOnline
This isn’t really me backing the Miami defense fully. But I’m all in on fading the Gator’s offense. However, here’s some numbers to make you confident in Miami’s defense. They are allowing just 2.4 yards per rush (No. 12), just 4.9 yards per play (No. 46) and are top 40 in both yards and points allowed per game. The secondary could use some work, but I am not worried about Lagway’s arm.
Is he going to throw five interceptions again? Probably not. But he’ll definitely throw at least one (probably two) and I do not see the Gators putting up points. They have scored just two total touchdowns against FBS opponents this season. And the overall offense is atrocious.
The Gators rank north of 100 (of 134 teams) in the following categories.
- Points per game: 12 (No. 112)
- Rushing Yards per game: 106 (No. 103)
- Turnover Margin: -2.5 (No. 126)
- Penalty Yards per game: 80 (No. 122)
They are bottom 50 in several other categories including converting just 34% of their third downs (No. 93) and throwing for just 6.2 yards per pass (No. 94). Miami is heading into a bye week, and they are looking to add as many wins to their resume as they can. Beating an SEC opponent (even Florida) would look good in the CFP Committee’s eyes, just in case something were to go wrong in the ACC Championship. You know… assuming they get there.
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