Duke vs. #17 Virginia: ACC Conference Championship | December 6, 2025

Welcome to the Atlantic Coast Conference Championship, where the Duke Blue Devils and No. 17 Virginia Cavaliers meet for the ACC crown. Both teams have plenty on the line, since the Cavaliers must win to stay alive for the College Football Playoffs and Duke has not claimed this title since 1989. Virginia last won it in 1995, and while they appear focused on a bigger goal, that focus might not be as sharp as they believe. Let’s dive in.

FADE THE STORM

I am fired up for this matchup, because it gives me one last system play Saturday during one of the biggest weeks of the season. After Virginia’s 27-7 win over Virginia Tech, who owns a 3-9 record, Cavalier fans stormed the field in celebration of the rivalry win. I understand the excitement, beating a rival is always fun, but read the room. This is not the college football you grew up watching, and these kids have no idea when a field storm is justified. Plus they already stormed earlier in the year against Florida State. You get one per year, sorry. Fading the storm is a code I live by, and because of that I am all over the Blue Devils with the points.

Some #Hokies fans have decided to storm the field following Virginia Tech’s 37-17 victory pic.twitter.com/cUqgogLdMd

— The Tech Lunch Pail (@TechLunchPailD) December 1, 2024

Duke steps in with full spoiler energy, since a win would knock Virginia out of the College Football Playoffs. A Duke win means nothing beyond a conference championship, since five losses is too much for a playoff berth. This is also a revenge spot. Virginia handled Duke 34-17 on the road in November.

Line Movement

I love that the spread continues to rise. Virginia opened as a 2.5 point favorite on Sunday, and the number has climbed to 4.5 at several books. With this write up being posted on Thursday, this could easily reach six. If you have patience, wait and see if the number continues to climb. I am annoyed with myself for jumping on +3 the moment it reached three, but I still believe this is a prime upset opportunity for the Blue Devils.

Duke has done a strong job against the run this season. They allow 139 yards per game and 4.1 yards per rush, both inside the top 60. Virginia leans on the ground game, with nearly 52% of their snaps coming as runs, and they average close to 40 carries per game. If Duke continues to limit the run and steps up in pass defense, an area that has been an issue this season, they can keep this game tight.

Duke enters with urgency, discipline, and the perfect spot to disrupt Virginia’s playoff hopes. The Cavaliers have the talent, but their field storm last week hints at a team a little too comfortable. The spread keeps rising, which only strengthens the value on the Blue Devils as an underdog with a clear path to keep this close. If Duke contains the run and sharpens up in coverage, this sets up as a real upset threat on championship weekend.

Best Bet: Duke +4 (-105) odds via BetOnline