Yesterday evening, the College Football Playoff Committee released their new CFP Rankings as the regular season came to a close. Now, these are not the final rankings, as the crew will meet again next week to re-rank all of these teams, but the field of 12 is certainly taking shape. Let’s look at those current rankings, talk about whether or not the CFP committee got it right, and how this impacts conference championship weekend.
Current College Football Playoff Rankings
Julian Sayin and Ohio State are the No. 1 overall seed in the CFP Rankings
Here are how the teams stand after 12 games of the regular season. Remember, only a few of these teams will be playing in a conference championship this weekend.
- Ohio State Buckeyes*
- Indiana Hoosiers*
- Georgia Bulldogs*
- Texas Tech Red Raiders*
- Oregon Ducks
- Ole Miss Rebels
- Texas A&M Aggies
- Oklahoma Sooners
- Alabama Crimson Tide*
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish
- BYU Cougars*
- Miami Hurricanes
- Texas Longhorns
- Vanderbilt Commodores
- Utah Utes
*playing in conference championship
Now, those are the top 15, but the bottom three are basically eliminated already. I don’t see a world where we have a spot open for Texas, Vandy or Utah, especially without playing for a conference championship. However, there are a few teams worth noting that are not shown in the top 15. The Virginia Cavaliers come in ranked at No. 17, and they face the unranked Duke Blue Devils in the ACC Championship this weekend. The American Athletic Conference Championship is between No. 20 Tulane and No. 24 North Texas, who are essentially playing to be the final spot in the field of 12. Below them is No. 25 James Madison, who still have a shot at making the playoff.
So what does all of this mean?
Potential College Football Playoff Field of 12
Fernando Mendoza and Indiana went a perfect 12-0 in the regular season
Based off these rankings, assuming nothing crazy happens in conference championship weekend, here are the the teams that will make the field of 12 (in no order).
- Ohio State
- Indiana
- Georgia
- Alabama
- Texas Tech
- Ole Miss
- Texas A&M
- Oregon
- Oklahoma
- Notre Dame
If those 10 teams are in, that leaves two spots left for the highest remaining conference champions. Virginia is in with a win, and the American Champion is in as well. If Duke were to upset Virginia, that could open the door for James Madison if they win the Sun Belt. If the JMU Dukes were to lose, but the Duke Blue Devils were to win, that could open up the door for the potential Mountain West Champion to get in (UNLV or Boise State). Nobody is rooting for a Virginia win more than the CFP committee.
BYU is also a team on the outside looking in, but if they win, they make it. This would likely drop the Irish from the field of 12 completely, while Texas Tech would drop in seeding, but not out of the playoff.
Unfortunately for Miami fans, I don’t see a way into the field of 12 since you are sitting at home this weekend.
How Does This Impact Conference Championship Weekend?
Behren Morton and Texas Tech have a rematch against BYU in the Big 12 Championship
The Big Ten is untouched. Indiana and Ohio State are both in, they are just playing for the No. 1 overall seed.
In my opinion, both SEC teams are in and playing for a bye, but one could argue Alabama is playing for a spot in the field of 12.
As for the Big 12, Texas Tech is in regardless and could earn a bye with a win, while BYU is in with a win and out with a loss (Notre Dame takes the spot with loss).
In the American, Tulane and North Texas are playing for the final spot in the field of 12. The winner is in no matter what.
Now things get messy. In the ACC, Virginia is in with a win, but Duke would not be in with a win. Instead, if Duke wins, James Madison takes the final spot, giving us two G5 representatives in the field of 12. If the Blue Devils win, but the Dukes were to lose in the Sun Belt, the door is open for the Mountain West.
Did the CFP Committee Get it Right?
Gunner Stockton and the Bulldogs are back in the SEC Championship
In short, yes. I believe they did. People are saying that Alabama could be dropped from the rankings with a loss, and while that does look to be the case, they are in the conference championship. It would be wild for the committee to punish the Tide for losing in the SEC Championship, while rewarding Oklahoma, Ole Miss and Texas A&M for not even making the game. Point being, the first two teams from that conference have to be the two that play for the championship.
Based on that same logic, you cannot drop BYU behind Miami (or Texas or Vandy). The Cougars earned a spot in the Big 12 Championship. You cannot punish them for a defeat when those other teams got the comfort of staying at home and not taking the field. So essentially, the playoff will involve the top nine teams in the rankings, the next two highest rated conference champions, with the final spot going to BYU if they win, and Notre Dame if they lose.
Everyone will point to Miami’s head to head win over the Irish, but to counter that point… that game was centuries ago in Week 1 of this season, and losses to the No. 7 and No. 12 teams in the country are much better than losing to two unranked teams. Argue with a wall. It won’t even matter if BYU wins.
However if the committee really wanted to put the BEST 12 teams in the playoff, they would get rid of the automatic bids and add BYU and Miami to the top 10 teams listed. But that won’t happen because the committee’s own criteria stands in their way.
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