#11 BYU vs. #4 Texas Tech Picks and Predictions: Big 12 Championship Best Bets

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Bear Bachmeier and BYU are playing for a spot in the College Football Playoff - BYU Texas Tech Picks

The Big 12 Championship is a rematch between the clear two best in the conference. Sorry Utah, you had the chance and lost to both of these teams in a head to head contest. Therefore, the No. 4 Texas Tech Red Raiders take on the No. 11 BYU Cougars at AT&T Stadium this Saturday. The stakes are much higher than just a conference championship in this matchup at Jerry’s World, so let’s get into our favorite picks.

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#11 BYU Cougars vs. #4 Texas Tech Red Raiders NCAA Football Insights

Let’s get the boring stats out of the way. Both of these teams went 11-1 this regular season, with BYU’s lone loss coming in the head to head meeting. Texas Tech lost to Arizona State in Tempe by just four points with their backup quarterback, but other than that game, they’ve handled business. The Red Raiders are 11-1 both straight up and against the spread this season, which is the best ATS record in the country. The Cougars aren’t far behind them at 9-3.

Despite being in the top five in the nation in scoring (over 40 points per game), the Red Raiders are 5-7 to the over thanks to their second ranked scoring defense. BYU is a boring 6-6 to the total this season. In the first meeting in Lubbock, we saw a dominating Red Raider victory, winning 29-7, covering the -13.5 spread despite the game staying well under 50.5 total points.

Now we see the same spread and a total that has dropped just one point for the Big 12 Championship.

Matchup Information – BYU vs. Texas Tech – December 6

  • Venue & Location: AT&T Stadium (Arlington, TX)
  • Date: Saturday, December 6, 2025
  • Kick Off: 12:00 p.m. Eastern
  • Broadcast: ABC

BYU vs. Texas Tech Betting Odds

Odds are courtesy of BetOnline, one of our favorite online sportsbooks, as of December 3, 2025 at 4:37 p.m. eastern. Sign up today with Promo Code BNBOL55 for a 55% deposit bonus. BetOnline offers a wide variety of unique markets across nearly every sport imaginable.

Spread

  • BYU +13 (-117)
  • Texas Tech -13 (-103)

Moneyline

  • BYU +396
  • Texas Tech -520

Total

  • Over 49.5 (-110)
  • Under 49.5 (-110)

I have a soft spot for the BYU Cougars, but I also love the Big 12 as a whole. And this Texas Tech team might be the best out of the conference since the Sooners and Longhorns left for the SEC. Sure, BYU is playing for a spot in the field of 12, while Texas Tech is pretty comfortably in, but they can still play for seeding.

As it current stands, the Red Raiders likely receive a first round bye, punching them straight into the quarterfinals with a win here, especially a dominating one. Talk down on the Big 12 all you want, but I see Texas Tech laying down the hammer this weekend.

#11 BYU vs. #4 Texas Tech NCAA Football Picks and Predictions

Coy Eakin averages 12.7 yards per reception this season with four touchdowns for the Red Raiders - BYU Texas Tech Picks

Coy Eakin averages 12.7 yards per reception this season with four touchdowns for the Red Raiders

BYU vs. Texas Tech Prediction: Texas Tech Wins and Covers, Over 49.5

Best Bet: Texas Tech -13 (-103) BetOnline

Now, there are some 12.5s out there, and this line is ticking down, so perhaps wait until closer to the weekend to see what happens. Anything under two touchdowns is fine with me. You can pick apart the Red Raiders schedule all you want, but they are more than capable of winning the national championship. They’ve only allowed three touchdowns in a game once this season, in a game they won by 23 as a seven point favorite. BYU simply does not have the offense to keep up with the Red Raiders.

There’s a few key stats that stick out to me.

BYU Offensive Ranks

  • 3D Conversion Rate: 68 (39.5%)
  • Rush Play %: 34 (56.5%)
  • Yards per Play: 45 (5.8)

But Texas Tech can counter all of that.

Texas Tech Defensive Ranks

  • Opponent 3D Conversion Rate: 8 (29.9%)
  • Opponent Yards per Rush: 2 (2.4)
  • Opponent Yards per Pass: 6 (5.6)

The Red Raiders are top five in scoring and top 10 in third down conversion rate on both sides of the ball, they lead the nation in takeaways (2.4 per game), and they have the rushing defense to slow down what BYU loves to do on offense. The Cougars are also outside the top 40 in yards per pass and north of 55 in yards per rush (which is their whole offense).

If the Cougars can’t move the ball on the ground, it won’t open up their passing game. And regardless, they don’t have the air raid attack to compete with Texas Tech.

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