College Football kicks off Week 1 on Thursday night with plenty of action on the gridiron. By my count, we have 17 NCAA Football matchups for our entertainment before the weekend really gets going. The marquee game of the night is later on ESPN, as the Nebraska Cornhuskers take on the Cincinnati Bearcats at Arrowhead Stadium, but thins get going on the channel even earlier in the day. At an brisk 5:30 p.m. eastern kick off, we get to see the South Florida Bulls host the No. 25 Boise State Broncos, and we found our favorite picks.
Let’s get to it!
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#25 Boise State Broncos vs. South Florida Bulls NCAA Football Insights
Byrum Brown returns from injury to lead the Bulls this season
Boise State tore up the college football scene last season, mainly thanks to one man. It was hard to ignore the Boise State Broncos dominance in the Mountain West, especially considering Heisman Finalist Ashton Jeanty was running all over opposing defenses. Now, this guy went for over 2,600 rushing yards and 29 touchdowns on the ground, while adding 138 receiving yards and a touchdown there. That’s a lot of production to replace, but I think Boise is capable.
Boise has three wide receivers and their starting TE all returning to the offense, as well as quarterback Maddux Madsen who threw for over 3,000 yards with 23 touchdowns and just six picks last season. They return a complete offensive line as well, along with pretty much everyone on their electric defense.
So all Boise has to replace is Jeanty, and I think they did that by getting Fresno State transfer Malik Sherrod. Despite coming off an injury, Sherrod rushed for 966 yards and 10 total touchdowns in 2023 for the Bulldogs, and while he isn’t a top draft pick like Jeanty, he is certainly capable of filling that hole.
On the other sideline, the Byrum Brown experiment continues. He got hurt after just five games last season, but in 2023 he threw for nearly 3,300 yards, adding 800 on the ground as well for 37 total touchdowns. However, he did throw 11 interceptions. Will some new skill players surrounding him and not much help on defense, can Brown lead the Bulls to a home upset in Week 1?
Malik Sherrod, Fresno State transfer, takes over for Boise State as Ashton Jeanty’s replacement
Matchup Information – Boise State vs. South Florida – August 28
- Venue & Location: Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, FL)
- Date: Thursday, August 28, 2025
- Kick Off: 5:30 p.m. Eastern
- Broadcast: ESPN
Boise State vs. South Florida Betting Odds
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Spread
- Boise State -5.5 (-109)
- South Florida +5.5 (-111)
Moneyline
- Boise State -205
- South Florida +177
Total
- Over 62.5 (-110)
- Under 62.5 (-110)
We have an extremely high total in this matchup, and probably for good reason. I see these teams going back and forth, up and down the field all game long, turning this into a shootout. However, I lean much more heavily with the Broncos on the defensive side of the ball.
For that reason, and the fact that their offense is virtually unchanged, I’ll back Boise on the road.
Boise State vs. South Florida NCAA Football Picks and Predictions
Maddux Madsen leads the Broncos without Ashton Jeanty
Boise State vs. South Florida Prediction: Boise State Wins & Covers, Over 62.5
Best Bet: Boise State -5.5 (-105) Bovada
But, but, but…. there’s no more Jeanty! What are the Broncos going to do without Ashton Jeanty?!
I understand the concerns. However, they return a phenomenal offensive line, still have the same QB and pass catching corps, and they plugged the RB spot with a more than capable back. Boise’s offense will be fine.
They ranked in the top 10 last season in points per game, putting up over 35 per contest, and still getting over 31 on the road. Tight End Matt Lauter was second on the team in receptions and receiving yards last season while leading the team with seven receiving touchdowns. Wide out Latrell Caples was third on the team in yards and catches and second in touchdowns, and is set to be the clear WR1 this season for the Broncos.
The other two wide receivers are ready for an increased role this season as well.
The Bulls defense ranked north of 100 last season (105) in points per game, allowing opponents to score over 32 per matchup, while the Broncos were in the top 40, giving up less than 24. While both defenses are pretty much the same, I certainly think the Broncos defensive unit comes up big for them tonight.
Offensively, I do not see them having a problem putting points on the board, as Madsen is more than competent and incredibly safe with the football. I don’t see very many turnovers coming from the Broncos’ offense this season.
I have little faith in Byrum Brown, both because he is coming off an injury, and he has multiple new faces to build chemistry with. To me, South Florida won’t have it all figured out by Thursday Night’s kick off, and I see Boise definitely winning by a touchdown.
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