While the entirety of our NCAA Football betting season hasn’t been as good as we’ve hoped, the player prop market as served us well. It’s been a diamond in the rough amongst a character building betting year on the college gridiron, so let’s keep grinding out some little victories. This week I’ve got two loaded up, and we have our first player prop under of the season. It’s worth mentioning that we were 7-0 on player prop unders last year in college football. Hate watching can be profitable, bet more unders.
So far this season we’ve had a little bit of success, but let’s try to build on it.
- NCAA Football Player Prop YTD
- 17-15 (56.7%)
- +1.02u
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Go to Betting News to check out what else I’ve got on the slate for Week 11, and view the latest odds at the best online sportsbooks.
#7 BYU Cougars vs. #8 Texas Tech Red Raiders NCAA Football Player Props
LJ Martin could have a tough time against the Texas Tech Red Raiders’ defense this weekend
Best Bet: LJ Martin Under 70.5 Rushing Yards (-114) BetOnline
Our first player prop under of the season, and we’re fading one of the best running backs in the game. LJ Martin only had five carries last week against Iowa State before being sat out for an injury. Now, he should be back on the field, but is potentially banged up, and even though BYU is a heavy running team, they have other options and might need to pass in order to move the ball in this game.
Texas Tech is the No. 1 team in the nation in rushing yards allowed, barely giving up this number per game to an entire team, let alone one player. They are also No. 3 in yards allowed per carry. Lastly, Texas Tech is favored by this many for a reason. You can read about why I’m backing them on the spread here, but the point is BYU will need to pass the ball in order to keep up. LJ Martin has only gone under this number twice this year, going for triple digits in five different games, but he might not see the necessary carries needed to get there in this time.
Look for the Red Raiders to dominate and for the BYU running back to see minimal action coming his way.
Iowa State Cyclones vs. TCU Horned Frogs NCAA Football Player Props
Josh Hoover throws for 296.4 yards per game this season
Best Bet: Josh Hoover (TCU) Over 273.5 Passing Yards (-114) BetOnline
Although TCU is more than a touchdown favorite in this contest, the Horned Frogs love to throw the ball. The hosts are top 25 in the nation in pass play percentage, with Hoover dropping back nearly 55% of the time. He throws for 7.9 yards per pass, but the team ranks top 15 in pass attempts and passing yards per game. The volume is certainly going to be there for the TCU quarterback.
Now, he’s only cleared this line in five of eight games this year, but he’s had 30+ attempts in seven of eight contests. Literally all he does is throw it. The Cyclones have a horrendous secondary, ranking No. 73 in yards per pass allowed, No. 81 in opponent interceptions thrown and are bottom 20 in sack percentage. Hoover will be able to sit back and pick apart the Cyclones defense.
Even if they go up big, they won’t stop throwing the ball. Plus part of me thinks Iowa State could be a sneaky live underdog in this matchup, meaning Hoover and the Horned Frogs would need to throw it just to keep up. Regardless, gimme his over.
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