A couple of teams from Texas go head to head early on Saturday’s Week 2 College Football slate, as Dave Aranda and the Baylor Bears head to Dallas from Waco to face the No. 17 SMU Mustangs. The Bears from the Big 12 start their season off against two very tough opponents, and things didn’t go well last week as they lost at home to the Auburn Tigers of the SEC. Now they face the No. 17 ranked team in the country on the road. Can Sawyer Robertson lead a bounce back victory for Baylor? Or will SMU continue their winning ways?
Check out the latest odds at the best online sportsbooks.
Baylor Bears vs. #17 SMU Mustangs NCAA Football Insights
Can Jennings lead the Mustangs over the Bears in Week 2?
Kevin Jennings took over as the starting QB for the Mustangs after just one game last season. He led SMU to an 11-1 regular season record, losing only to BYU by just three points throughout the year. The Mustangs played Clemson in the ACC Championship in their first year in the conference, but came up short, losing by three points. However, it was still enough to get them into the College Football Playoff, where they lost 38-10 to Penn State in the quarterfinals.
But Jennings is back under center (or in shotgun) and he looked good in Week 1. SMU rolled East Texas A&M, beating them 42-13. However, now they face a real opponent, but thankfully aren’t looking forward to a tough matchup either, so their full focus should be on beating Baylor.
On the Bears side, I am riding their win total under 7.5 this season, and thankfully Auburn got the job done last Friday. But I’ll admit, Baylor looked alright on offense. Defensively, they couldn’t figure out how to stop Jackson Arnold on the ground as he went for 137 yards on 16 carries with a couple of touchdowns. And giving up 38 points is certainly not sustainable.
Can Dave Aranda lead the Bears on the road this weekend?
Matchup Information – Baylor vs. SMU – September 6
- Venue & Location: Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas, TX)
- Date: Saturday, September 6, 2025
- Kick Off: 12:00 p.m. Eastern
- Broadcast: The CW Network
Baylor vs. SMU Betting Odds
Odds are courtesy of BetOnline, one of our favorite online sportsbooks, as of September 6, 2025 at 9:13 a.m. eastern. Sign up today with Promo Code FREE250 for a 50% deposit bonus up to $250 as well as 100 Free Spins at the online casino.
Spread
- Baylor +2.5 (+100)
- SMU -2.5 (-120)
Moneyline
- Baylor +122
- SMU -142
Total
- Over 64.5 (-110)
- Under 64.5 (-110)
Las Vegas thinks this game turns into a shootout, as a 65.5 point total with less than a field goal spread translates to each team scoring 30+ in this contest. I’ll be honest, I think we see some back and forth as well, but not enough to take the over.
While Baylor was able to move the ball, they could not stop Auburn at all. I certainly don’t see them being able to slow down Jennings and this Mustangs’ offense. On the flip side, I do have faith in SMU playing tough defense at home after losing last year to a Big 12 opponent on their own turf.
Even though I am on Baylor’s win total under, I have them losing this game and I’ll be doubling down on SMU.
Baylor vs. #17 SMU NCAA Football Picks and Predictions
Romello Brinson had 121 receiving yards and a touchdown in Week 1
Baylor vs. SMU Prediction: SMU Wins & Covers, Over 65.5
Best Bet: SMU ML (-130) BetOnline
Full transparency, I jumped the gun. I booked the Ponies at -146 yesterday, so you can certainly get a better number than I did. Clearly the books (and the bettors) think the Bears are going to show more signs of life in this game. But I’m not convinced.
SMU’s offense returns tons of production. Sure, last year’s backups are in for bigger roles, but they all stepped up in Week 1 and clearly have plenty of chemistry with Jennings, as most of the pass catchers have been with him their entire collegiate career. The Mustang’s offense picked up right where they left off, which was scoring 34.8 points per game, increasing to 41.2 at home, ranking No. 7 in the country.
Baylor’s defense didn’t show up, and in Week 1 we saw they were not capable of keeping up in a shootout. They were up 3-0 just five minutes into the game, but found themselves down 17-3 just before halftime. Baylor got it back within a touchdown twice in the second half, late in the third and early in the fourth, but Auburn answered and pulled away. This includes a 98 yard kick return for the Tigers immediately after the Bears made it a 24-17 ball game.
I expect plenty of points from both sides, but ultimately I trust the SMU defense more to contain their opponent and take some pressure off of their offense. Give me Jennings and the Mustangs to ride their way to victory over Baylor at home.
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