The cowbells will be clanging loudly and proudly in Starkville, Mississippi as the Bulldogs of Mississippi State welcome 12th-ranked Arizona State for a Saturday evening showdown at Davis Wade Stadium (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2). But can the Bulldogs put the Sun Devils on upset alert? On a slate with few standout selections, Arizona State vs. Mississippi State could be one of Week 2’s top games.
When these two teams met in Tempe last year, the Sun Devils jumped out to a 30-3 lead before the Bulldogs made a spirited but ultimately unsuccessful rally in a 30-23 Arizona State win.
From there, ASU made an unexpected run to the Big 12 title in its debut season in the conference, while MSU went 2-10 and failed to win an SEC game.
This year, the Sun Devils shoulder high expectations as the team to beat in the Big 12, while the Bulldogs are expected to be better but still near the bottom of the SEC.
Tonight’s matchup in Starkville presents an opportunity for the home team to make as much noise on the field as the cowbells do in the stands. Can they take advantage of it? Read on for our Arizona State vs. Mississippi State prediction and best bets and get the best value odds for this matchup from BetOnline and other top online sportsbooks.
Arizona State vs. Mississippi State Prediction and Best Bets
Prediction: Mississippi State to win
A lot must happen for Mississippi State to pull the upset, but an evening home game in front of a rowdy crowd is a prime spot for an upset pick.
If the Bulldogs can put some points on the board early, it can only fuel their confidence and the cowbell-clanging crowd.
They certainly didn’t play a perfect game against Southern Miss, but they successfully handled a potentially tricky road tilt and a dynamic quarterback in Braylon Braxton. There seems to be some pieces in place to turn last year’s moral victories into a potential upset or two, and this is one of the likeliest possible spots on their schedule.
Arizona State is a very, very good team and can still make the CFP even with a loss in Starkville. But this matchup, the setting, and the timing make them fodder for a fade this week.
Best Bets
1) Mississippi State +6.5 (-105 at BetOnline)
While the Bulldogs lacked both quality and wins last season, one thing they didn’t lack was fighting spirit. They displayed it against several significantly superior teams, including the Sun Devils.
It remains to be seen how much better this year’s Mississippi State team will be—obviously, just about anything would be an improvement on 2-10—but the rematch vs. Arizona State could indicate whether the improvement is incremental or incredible.
The Bulldogs put in a creditable performance on both sides of the ball in opening the season with a 34-17 win at Southern Miss last week. They racked up 279 yards passing and 186 yards rushing offensively, and they held the Golden Eagles to only 301 yards.
This week brings a much stiffer test, but if the worst Mississippi State team in some time could come within a touchdown on the road vs. the best Arizona State team in some time, an improved MSU team should be in it the entire way in the rematch at home. It doesn’t hurt that this squad don’t have to deal with Cam Skattebo, who ran through, over, and around the Dog defense to the tune of 262 yards on 33 carries.
2) Blake Shapen Over 244.5 Passing Yards (-115 at Lucky Rebel)
After having what was supposed to be his senior season ended early, Shapen returned to Starkville for a second season and opened with a solid showing against Southern Miss (26 for 33 for 272 yards with a touchdown and an interception).
He won’t need to throw for 350 yards and four touchdowns for Mississippi State to have a chance vs. Arizona State, but he will need to be efficient and effective. With that in mind—and with the Sun Devils unlikely to hold the ball for 40 minutes like they did last year—this number is a very reachable target.
3) Brenen Thompson Over 50.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at Bovada)
Thompson caught 27 passes in three seasons at Texas and Oklahoma, but the speedy senior stands to have a significant role in Starkville this season. Against Southern Miss, he had seven catches for 92 yards to lead the team in both categories. Look for Shapen to try to get him involved early and often, and if he can get loose, watch out.
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