#8 Alabama vs. #14 Missouri Picks and Predictions: Tigers Host Crimson Tide in Columbia

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Kalen DeBoer is 1-0 in the Iron Bowl as coach of the Crimson Tide - Alabama Auburn Picks

A huge top 15 SEC Showdown happens this weekend, and kicks off right away on Saturday morning (afternoon to those on the East Coast). The Alabama Crimson Tide are back in the top 10 after two straight big wins, and now go head to head with the Missouri Tigers, who find themselves ranked No. 14 overall. Faurot Field will be rocking this weekend when the Tide rolls in from Tuscaloosa, and I expect Eli Drinkwitz to have his team ready to go coming off a bye week. Let’s dive into our favorite picks to see if the Tigers can pull off this upset at home.

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#8 Alabama Crimson Tide vs. #14 Missouri Tigers NCAA Football Insights

The Tide are coming off a couple of HUGE wins. Sure, everyone remembers them losing in Tallahassee to Florida State as two touchdown favorites, but since then, they have won four straight, including beating the Georgia Bulldogs in Athens and the Vanderbilt Commodores last week. Coming off two emotional wins, the Tide now face a very feisty Missouri Tigers team who is perfect this year, and coming off a bye week.

Sure, Missouri’s schedule doesn’t look as tough as the Tide’s. They have three cupcake wins, plus victories over Kansas and South Carolina, but all five have been at home. They get another matchup at Faurot Field this Saturday, and I like them to take advantage of being in their own stadium. Missouri covered three straight spreads to start the year, but have failed to do so in their last two. They were 10 point favorites over South Carolina and won by nine, while they were 44.5 point favorites over UMass, beating the Minutemen by 26. Can they find a way to cover (or win) as underdogs for the first time this year?

Matchup Information – Alabama vs. Missouri – October 11

  • Venue & Location: Memorial Stadium (Columbia, MO)
  • Date: Saturday, October 11, 2025
  • Kick Off: 12:00 p.m. Eastern
  • Broadcast: ABC

Alabama vs. Missouri Betting Odds

Odds are courtesy of BetOnline, one of our favorite online sportsbooks, as of October 8, 2025 at 9:49 a.m. eastern. Sign up today with Promo Code BNBOL55 for a 55% deposit bonus. BetOnline offers a wide variety of unique markets across nearly every sport imaginable.

Spread

  • Alabama -3 (-110)
  • Missouri +3 (-110)

Moneyline

  • Alabama -158
  • Missouri +138

Total

  • Over 52 (-105)
  • Under 52 (-115)

This is a bad spot for the Tide. They are coming off back to back big wins, and face a Tigers team that looks rock solid, is coming off a bye, and has been comfortable at home all year long. Yes, this will be Missouri’s biggest test so far this season, but I believe they know this and will come with the focus needed to pull off a huge upset.

#8 Alabama vs. #14 Missouri NCAA Football Picks and Predictions

Hardy is quietly having a Heisman caliber season for the Missouri Tigers - Alabama Missouri Picks

Hardy is quietly having a Heisman caliber season for the Missouri Tigers

Alabama vs. Missouri Prediction: Missouri Wins Outright, Under 52

Best Bet: Missouri +3 (-110) BetOnline

For transparency reasons, my actual best bet in this contest is Ahmad Hardy Over 89.5 Rushing Yards for (-122), however that line is long gone. I don’t mind his yards at 99.5, as 90+ is priced around (-160) now, but I lean heavily with the Missouri Tigers. If Hardy has success in this game, so will the hosts.

Hardy is having a potential Heisman worthy season, and Alabama’s rushing defense hasn’t been all that impressive. They are Bottom 40 in yards allowed per carry (4.7), and are bottom 12 in rush play percentage. Hardy has ran for triple digits in all five games this year, doing so for 7.1 yards per rush attempt. He’s had 22+ carries in four straight games, his lowest YPC in a single game was 4.5 against Kansas, and he has a 30+ yard rush in four of five games this year, running for a longest of 18 against UMass.

Now, let’s talk about the Tide and containing the run.

Rushing Offensive Success vs. Alabama Defense

  • Florida State: 49-230-4, Long 32, 4.7 YPC
  • Georgia: 33-227-2, Long 43 (2x), 6.9 YPC
  • Vanderbilt: 18-136-1, Long 65 (35 yarder as well), 7.6 YPC

Against teams that have a pulse (sorry ULM and Wisconsin), the Crimson Tide has allowed nearly 200 yards per game and are giving up 5.93 yards per rush attempt. Not only that, but someone has busted out for a 30+ yard rush in every single contest. Facing a very good Missouri team on the road, look for them to pound the ground with Hardy, win the matchup in the trenches, and take some pressure off of Beau Pribula. Hardy runs for triple digits again and the Tigers hand the Crimson Tide another loss, as they do a good job of controlling the clock and keeping Ty Simpson and company on the sidelines.

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