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Conference Championship Week Results: 3-2 (+0.6u)
2025 Season Record: 61-55-2 (+12.4u)
#9 Alabama vs. #8 Oklahoma Odds
Should the Crimson Tide be a road favorite?
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Spread
- Alabama: -1.0 (-107)
- Oklahoma: +1.0 (-113)
Moneyline
- Alabama: -113
- Oklahoma: -107
Total
- Over: 40.0 (-115)
- Under: 40.0 (-105)
#9 Alabama vs. #8 Oklahoma – December 19
It is finally here. The College Football Playoffs kick off Friday night as No. 9 Alabama heads to Norman to take on No. 8 Oklahoma. We are getting a rematch from November 15, when the Sooners went into Tuscaloosa and took down the Crimson Tide 23-21. Will Oklahoma be able to slow down the Tide with the help of their home crowd, or will Alabama prove they deserve a spot in the College Football Playoffs despite having three losses?
Line Movement
The line in this matchup has been on the move since it opened. Alabama originally opened as a 1.5 point favorite, then flipped to +2, before moving back to -1.5, where it currently sits. The total has remained steady at 40.5 since opening last week. I am not interested in the total here. I love a side.
I know many people are upset with a three loss Alabama team making the College Football Playoffs instead of BYU or Notre Dame. That conversation is for another time. We are here to talk about why the Crimson Tide are set up to win in Norman this weekend. The best way to describe my confidence in Alabama is to compare them to North Carolina in March. They barely made the tournament, many believed they did not belong, and then they came out and destroyed San Diego State 95-68. Buy into the doubt!
Trust the Tide
I do believe Alabama belongs in the playoffs. They endured one of the toughest schedules in college football. People forget that despite losing to Georgia in the SEC Championship, the Crimson Tide still own the biggest win of the season by taking down Georgia earlier in the year. Alabama went through a brutal midseason stretch and has been regaining form since their loss to Oklahoma. This was a team coming off wins over Georgia, Vanderbilt, Missouri, and Tennessee, four straight ranked opponents, followed by wins over South Carolina and LSU. A letdown was inevitable. The loss to Georgia in the conference title game was the wake up call this team needed.
Oklahoma has been idle since November 29, meaning they will have gone nearly a full month without playing a meaningful game. Since beating Alabama at home, the Sooners followed it up with an 11 point win over Missouri and a 4 point win over LSU. That Alabama game was their Super Bowl. In that matchup, the Crimson Tide outgained Oklahoma by nearly 200 yards, and without three turnovers, Alabama likely wins that game outright. It is extremely difficult to beat the same elite team twice, even at home, which is why I am leaning so heavily with the Crimson Tide.
The line will likely continue to shift as the week progresses, but if you can find Alabama at plus money to move on to the second round of the College Football Playoffs, take it. I expect the Crimson Tide to come out with a chip on their shoulder this Friday and prove why they belong, advancing confidently to the next round.
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