Write Up Transparency
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Week 14 Results: 7-1 (+5.66u)
2025 Season Record: 58-53-2 (+11.80u)
2025 Heisman Trophy Odds
Does Julian Sayin have a chance at winning the Heisman?
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Fernando Mendoza +135
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Julian Sayin +135
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Diego Pavia +275
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Jeremiyah Love +2500
Heisman Trophy Insights
As championship week kicks off, the Heisman market has narrowed to a razor thin group of contenders. Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza and Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin sit at the top. Two quarterbacks meeting in the Big Ten Championship. Two players tied for first in the Heisman odds. Two athletes with one final shot to make a statement before the College Football Playoffs.
As for the other two names above, Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia delivered an outstanding season for the Commodores, but missing the SEC Championship removes any chance to strengthen his resume, which likely ends his run. Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love suffered a rib injury against Stanford this past weekend, holding him back from making another strong push at the finish line.
With those two not playing in a conference championship this weekend, I believe it nearly ends their chances to win this award, so I am essentially out on both of them.
Where is the value?
Although I am currently holding Pavia and Love Heisman tickets, I am not looking to hedge. I will let them ride. With Sayin and Mendoza going head to head this weekend, there is a clear way to approach both the award and the matchup. Ohio State is a 5.5 point favorite at the time of this write up. If you trust Ohio State to overwhelm Indiana and believe Sayin will drive the offense, take him to win it. If Mendoza struggles against the Buckeyes defense, it only boosts Sayin’s stock.
If you believe Mendoza is going to torch one of the best defenses in the country, you are getting a better number by backing Indiana to win. The Hoosiers moneyline is up to +188 on some books. With Mendoza listed at +135 to win the award, taking Indiana to win the Big Ten Championship may offer more value.
It all comes down to whether you are already invested in the Heisman market or stepping in at the last moment. If you are entering late and want action tied to the Big Ten Championship, the approach laid out above gives you the clearest and most logical path to attack this race. Either way, this matchup will define everything and deliver the final word on this race. This is going to be incredible.
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