2025 Heisman Trophy: Odds & Insights | October 31, 2025

For those looking for a good laugh, I bet Alabama to win the national championship at 10-to-1 and Ty Simpson at 20-to-1 to win the Heisman Trophy before the season started. I also recently discovered that I accidentally bet Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love at 20-to-1 to win the award instead of Simpson. I know what you are thinking, completely different name, how is that possible? Well, they had the same odds and were listed right next to each other, which is how I made my fatal mistake. Since realizing that, I have been searching for any remaining value on the board, and after digging through all the noise, I think I finally found a guy worth taking a shot on. Sometimes the best bets show up when you least expect them.

Favorite Look

I grabbed Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia at +1000 last week before the Commodores’ win over No. 19 Missouri. My thinking was simple: there was more long-term value backing Pavia than betting on Vandy in that single matchup. Now, with Vanderbilt ranked inside the top ten and preparing to face No. 20 Texas this weekend, Pavia has a real chance to strengthen an already impressive 2025 resume. His year already includes a win at then-No. 11 South Carolina, a team that turned out to be overhyped, a 16-point loss to now-No. 4 Alabama, who has only improved as the season has progressed, and a win over then-No. 10 LSU, who just fired Brian Kelly this week.

Not the most impressive list of victories in hindsight, but at the time of each game, Pavia delivered.

Other Leans

Another name I like is Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss at +3300, a great price for a guy who has stepped up and delivered for Lane Kiffin and the Rebels. The biggest issue with Chambliss is that Ole Miss’ season is essentially over after their most recent win over No. 18 Oklahoma. The Rebels have South Carolina, Florida, and Mississippi State left, not exactly resume-building opponents. So while the value is strong for a player who has silenced all the doubters who said a Division II transfer could not succeed in the SEC, the path to a Heisman moment simply is not there.

Diego Pavia feels like one of the last true value plays left on the Heisman board. His numbers pop, Vanderbilt keeps winning, and if he can lead the Commodores past Texas this weekend, he will officially crash the national conversation. Chambliss deserves credit for what he has done at Ole Miss, but the lack of marquee games kills his Heisman case. Pavia still has multiple spotlight moments ahead, and voters love a fresh story. If Vanderbilt keeps this magical run alive, +1000 could end up looking like one of the sharpest tickets of the college football season.