2025 College Football Win Total Picks: Tulane Green Wave

Tulane hosts Duke and their own former QB this weekend - Duke Tulane Picks

The 2025 NCAA Football season begins next Saturday with Week 0, and here at Betting News, we previewed all of the Power Four conferences. But what about love for the smaller schools? I’ve got my eye on a win total this season in the American Athletic Conference, a league that I believe this team will win with ease. Let’s get into why I love the Tulane Green Wave to soar over their win total this season.

Be sure to check out all of our Power Four Conference Previews below.

Tulane Green Wave Football Roster

Jake Retzlaff transferred away from BYU and joined Tulane late in the offseason

Offensive Skill Players

Let’s start by talking about the squad. Tulane went 9-5 last season, and an impressive 7-1 during conference play. However they lost all three of their ranked matchups, including losing to No. 24 Army in the AAC Championship. The back ups were blown out by Florida in the Gasparilla Bowl, and the Green Wave dropped the final three games on their schedule.

This year they can get right back to the conference championship.

They are headlined with new QB in BYU transfer Jake Retzlaff. He threw for nearly 3,000 yards last season with 20 touchdowns, adding six rushing TDs as well with 415 yards on the ground. Arnold Barnes is set to take a bigger role at RB after running for 400 yards and six TDs last season, and the pass catching corps is new and improved.

Shazz Preston is set for a breakout season, but they also brought in Tre Shackelford of Austin Peay and Omari Hayes of Florida Atlantic. Last season at FAU, Hayes caught 39 passes for 590 yards and three touchdowns. Retzlaff drops back behind a very experienced offensive line, headlined by four super seniors and a redshirt junior.

Shazz Preston could be set for a breakout year in the AAC

Defensive Transfers

Head Coach Jon Sumrall had to replace plenty of defenders, but he assembled a bit of a mid-major all star squad. Santana Hopper (Appalachian State) and Mo Westmoreland (UTEP) will immediately start as edge rushers. Hopper had five sacks last season and 8.5 tackles for a loss, while Westmoreland added eight sacks and six QB hits, including 15.5 sacks over the past two seasons.

Troy transfer LJ Green will also start right away at cornerback after having 27 tackles, six pass deflections and two interceptions last year. The linebacker unit remains the same, led by Senior Sam Howard who had 63 tackles, 2.5 sacks and a pick last year.

The Green Wave were already top 30 in points and yards allowed last season amongst FBS teams, and they simply got better. Watch out for this unit to tear up a weaker conference this upcoming season.

Jon Sumrall led Tulane to a 9-5 season in his first year as head coach

Tulane Green Wave Football Schedule

Before we get in to the exact win total, let’s check out the schedule.

Week 1: vs. Northwestern
Week 2: @ South Alabama
Week 3: vs. Duke
Week 4: @ No. 21 Ole Miss
Week 5: @ Tulsa
Week 6: Bye Week
Week 7: vs. East Carolina (Thursday)
Week 8: vs. Army
Week 9: Bye Week
Week 10: @ UTSA (Thursday)
Week 11: @ Memphis (Friday)
Week 12: vs. Florida Atlantic
Week 13: @ Temple
Week 14: vs. Charlotte

Now, let’s talk about how Tulane can find nine wins.

Sam Howard leads Tulane’s defensive unit this upcoming season

Win Total Pick: Tulane Green Wave Over 8.5 Wins (+140)

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All we need is nine wins. Go search out any AAC Preview, they will likely tell you Tulane wins this conference. And they totally should, as they are priced around +125 to do so. But I’ll take even more reward for just nine wins.

The American is going to be VERY top heavy, with Tulane, Memphis and the service schools leading the charge. After that, I see a very steep gap before we see the next best team. Sure, UTSA was right there a few seasons ago, but I am not as impressed with them as I am the others in the conference.

I see the Green Wave going 3-1 in non-conference play, losing to Ole Miss, obviously. New Duke QB, Darian Mensah, has to come back to Tulane to try and beat his former team after leaving this offseason. This is one the Green Wave certainly have circled, and I expect a big home win that week. That will be Duke’s first true test, and their first on the road.

As conference play rolls around, the only two games that worry me are against Army and at Memphis. Assuming they are 3-1 going into AAC play, we can afford losing both of those matchups, even though I see them handling Army with ease.

Worst case, they lose to Duke and the Rebels and we can only afford one conference loss, but the Green Wave are capable. They get to avoid Navy and South Florida, both who finished in the top six last season. For plus money, asking for nine wins from this Tulane team isn’t all that much, and I’m ready to sweat alongside them all season long.

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2025 College Football Win Total Picks: Back the Tulane Green Wave This Season