#18 USF vs. #5 Miami: Every college football season presents a handful of games where the matchup, timing, and circumstances all align to create the perfect betting opportunity. For me, this is one of those spots. I am always looking for teams that have emptied the tank in emotional wins, only to be asked to rise to the occasion again the very next week. It is a principle I trust every season, and it has been one of the most profitable angles in my handicapping.
This week, that spotlight falls on the South Florida Bulls. After starting their season with a blowout win over Boise State and then following it up with one of the biggest victories in program history at Florida, the Bulls suddenly find themselves in the national conversation. Now they must turn around, regroup, and head to Miami to face a top-five Hurricanes team that looks complete on both sides of the ball.
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Week 2 Results: 2-2 (-0.3u)
#18 USF vs. #5 Miami Betting Odds
Can Carson Beck lead the Hurricanes to another dominating win?
Odds are courtesy of BetOnline, one of our favorite online sportsbooks, as of September 10, 2025 at 9:24 a.m. eastern. Sign up today with Promo Code FREE250 for a 50% deposit bonus up to $250 as well as 100 Free Spins at the online casino.
Spread
- South Florida -18 (-115)
- Miami (FL) -18(-105)
Moneyline
- South Florida +534
- Miami (FL) -750
Total
- Over 56 (-110)
- Under 56 (-110)
#18 USF vs. #5 Miami – September 13
A matchup I knew I would have to be on, based on my principles and my love for fading teams coming off their “Super Bowls.” I crave a letdown spot more than your dad craves the morning paper on his way to his office (bathroom) on a Sunday morning. No team in the country has made a bigger splash to start the season than the South Florida Bulls.
Hello USF!
In Week 1, they dominated Boise State 34-7 as three-point underdogs, proving the Broncos’ success last year was all about their star running back. Then last week, USF went into Gainesville and stunned #13 Florida 18-16. At the Swamp? That is easily one of the biggest wins in their program’s history. Now the Bulls must regroup and head to Miami to face what I believe is one of the most complete teams in all of college football. Am I basing this on what I saw against Notre Dame in Week 1? Yes, Miami looked confident, poised, and absolutely legit.
The Hurricanes just rolled Bethune-Cookman 45-3 as 54.5-point favorites, a game that did not matter for proving anything. This week does. They know how dangerous USF has looked and will not underestimate them. Some will argue the number is too high, but I think it is right where it should be.
Can USF Handle Miami?
The way Miami’s defense shut down Notre Dame’s run game in Week 1 was eye-opening. The Fighting Irish live on the ground, and the Hurricanes held them to just 93 rushing yards while forcing two turnovers. If Miami can keep dual-threat quarterback Byrum Brown from extending drives with his legs, I believe they can control this game from start to finish.
I will be happily fading South Florida after their massive road win over a top-15 team, now forced to go back on the road to face a top-5 team. The three-score spread does not worry me. I have full respect for this explosive Miami offense, and Carson Beck has looked fantastic to start the season with his new team. I fully expect the Hurricanes to silence the noise the Bulls are making early this year.
At the end of the day, this comes down to timing, matchup, and mentality. South Florida has had an incredible start and deserves credit for what it has accomplished, but history shows these spots are where programs like this get exposed. Back-to-back emotional wins, capped by a program-defining upset, are almost impossible to follow with another peak performance. Miami has the talent, depth, and balance to take full advantage, and I trust their defense to keep Byrum Brown from taking over. This is the perfect spot to fade USF and back the Hurricanes to win big at Hard Rock Stadium.
Best Bet: Miami -18 (-105) odds via BetOnline
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