#10 Miami vs. #7 Texas A&M: Early Odds & Leans | December 20, 2025

Welcome into the first round of the College Football Playoffs, where every snap matters and every team is fighting to earn its shot at a national championship. One of the better matchups to kick off the tournament is No. 10 Miami heading to College Station to face No. 7 Texas A&M. Both teams arrive with similar paths, since neither played in its conference championship. However, some would argue one of these teams does not belong in the tournament at all. Will Miami show up and prove it deserved a spot over Notre Dame or even BYU? This will be one of the more discussed matchups, and for good reason. So let us get into where my head is early on.

Does Miami Belong?

This matchup opened Sunday afternoon with the Aggies listed as a 3.5 point favorite, and since then some books have moved them to -4. The total opened at 51.5 and has held steady. I do not have a strong lean on the total, but I have placed a bet on a side.For transparency, I grabbed the Aggies moneyline Sunday at -166. I know some people do not enjoy paying juice, but I would rather pay the near 70 cent juice than worry about the three and a hook.

Miami has had a cake walk to reach the College Football Playoffs. Since its Week 1 win over Notre Dame, Miami has faced Bethune Cookman, a Group of five opponent, a four win team, a five win team, an unranked loss, a four win team, another unranked loss, a three win team, a seven win team, a three win team, and an eight win team. Now the Hurricanes have to walk into Kyle Field, one of the toughest venues in college football, and go toe to toe with one of the more complete teams in the SEC. I love the Aggies here.

To keep this Miami doubt rolling, the Hurricanes have left the state of Florida only three times this season. They have traveled to SMU, Virginia Tech, and Pitt. None of those stadiums offer anything close to the atmosphere they will see at Kyle Field. The Hurricanes have not been tested by a team of Texas A&M’s caliber since their opener against Notre Dame.

Get Right Aggies

The Aggies will be more than ready. After their loss to Texas in rivalry week, they have had time to prepare and let that one settle in. This is a team that has averaged over 35 points per game while allowing fewer than 24. They rank 16th in yards gained per game and 28th in yards allowed. Texas A&M is a complete group on both sides of the ball. I believe this Aggies team will be fully prepared to take on the Hurricanes on December 20, entering this matchup with balance, experience, and a clear edge in strength of schedule. Miami has talent, but this stage and this environment will demand far more than it has shown. I trust the Aggies to control the game, protect their home turf, and advance to the next round.