Today’s Battle 4 Atlantis championship game is a matchup of two teams who have achieved early success this season with two completely different approaches. That significant contrast makes Vanderbilt vs. Saint Mary’s (1:00 p.m. ET, ESPN2) one of the most interesting games on this week’s college basketball schedule.
After entering the AP poll at No. 24 this week, the Commodores (7-0) advanced to today’s championship contest with wins over Western Kentucky (83-78) and VCU (89-74).
For the trophy, they will face off with the Gaels (8-0), who, along with Nebraska, received the 30th-most votes in this week’s AP poll and defeated Wichita State (70-65) and Virginia Tech (77-66) to reach the title game in Nassau.
There is some familiarity between the two teams, as Vanderbilt vs. Saint Mary’s was a first round matchup in last season’s NCAA Tournament.
The Gaels ended the Commodores’ season with a 59-56 win before falling to Alabama in the second round, but while that was a low-scoring game, today’s matchup at Imperial Arena should feature more scoring.
After scoring 80+ points eight times last season, Saint Mary’s has already hit that mark six times this season. That level of scoring does not quite compare to Vanderbilt, who has scored no fewer than 83 points in every game and has hit the century mark four times already.
How much scoring will we see between the Gaels and Commodores, and which team will leave the Bahamas still undefeated? Read on for our Vanderbilt vs. Saint Mary’s prediction and picks. Also, get the best betting odds from top online sportsbooks such as BetOnline.
Vanderbilt vs. Saint Mary’s Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vanderbilt | -3.5 (-110) | n/a | Over 152 (-110) |
| Saint Mary’s | +3.5 (-110) | n/a | Under 152 (-110) |
Vanderbilt vs. Saint Mary’s Prediction and Picks
Prediction: Vanderbilt to win
While both teams have been prolifically pouring in points to this point, they are not doing so the same way.
Vanderbilt enters today ranked 33rd nationally in average offensive possession length (15.1 seconds) and 40th in offensive possessions per game (77.4). The Commodores are maximizing those possessions as well, averaging 98.1 points per game (second nationally) at a clip of 1.268 points per possession (fifth nationally).
Saint Mary’s, meanwhile, ranks 287th in possessions per game (69.5) and 308th in average offensive possession length (18.5 seconds), and they are 42nd in points per possession (1.178). These numbers don’t take into consideration the Gaels’ 96-42 win over Division II UC Merced.
While ranking 308th in average offensive possession length doesn’t seem like much, it is worth noting that they ranked 360th, 359th, and 360th in that category in the previous three seasons.
Will this uptick continue? While it might have helped see the Gaels through last season’s Vanderbilt vs. Saint Mary’s matchup, their ceiling has been limited by a style that serves them well for the most part from November to mid-March but hasn’t when it’s win or go home time in the NCAA Tournament.
Trying to slow things down to some degree may be the best route to victory for Saint Mary’s. But how much will they try to do that, and how effective will it be?
If anyone can keep the Commodores to fewer than 80 points or even the low 80s, the Gaels are a team that can do it. But even if they do, I still like Vandy’s chances to come away with the win because the Commodores’ cadre of offensive threats will still be able to score enough to outscore the Gaels, who have a more limited arsenal.
Vanderbilt vs. Saint Mary’s Picks
Vanderbilt -3.5 (-105 at Bovada)
Vanderbilt’s closest game to date is Wednesday’s win over Western Kentucky, with all of their other wins, including impressive wins over UCF (67th at KenPom) and VCU (50th at KenPom), have come by double digits.
I’d like this number a bit more at -3, but I still feel locking in -3.5 before much morning line movement takes place. I like the Dores to take this one by at least a couple of possessions.
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