Thursday College Basketball Best Bets | January 30, 2025

Thursday’s slate is packed, and we are locking in on two prime matchups where the numbers and narratives collide. Penn State is a home dog in a perfect bounce-back spot, while Oregon looks to shake off a tough loss and push the pace against UCLA. The trends may say otherwise, but tonight, we are trusting the edges that matter.

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Last Month in CBB: 42-51-1 (-14.63 Units)

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Ohio State vs Penn State Best Bet

Can Penn State sneak out a win over Ohio State tonight?

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This game has been circled since Monday morning—Buckeyes vs. Nittany Lions. After dismantling Iowa and watching Penn State fall to Michigan, this is the perfect spot to back the Nittany Lions. They are desperate for a win, having lost six of their last seven, but they have been a covering machine, cashing in five straight. Despite their struggles, they have given every opponent a fight, losing by an average of just 2.75 points over that stretch.

Ohio State just handled an Iowa team that does not play a lick of defense, shooting 48.4% from the floor and 29.6% from three while losing the turnover battle, yet still winning by 17.

Now, the Buckeyes must face the 89th-ranked defense that thrives on forcing turnovers, ranking 27th nationally. Penn State is elite at home, ranking 36th per Haslametrics, while Ohio State has struggled on the road, ranking 24th worst. The Nittany Lions’ offense jumps to 36th in adjusted efficiency and effective field goal percentage at home. They excel inside and at getting to the line, where they convert 77.1% of their free throws. Meanwhile, Ohio State is among the nation’s worst in free throw rate defense in true road games, ranking 20th worst.

The Buckeyes cruised against Iowa, but now they have to step into a fight against a desperate Penn State team on its home floor. Give me Penn State to win. Pay the juice.

Best Bet: Penn State Moneyline (-162) on BetOnline

#16 Oregon vs UCLA Best Bet

Can the Ducks bounce back after their road loss to Minnesota?

An unranked home favorite vs. a ranked opponent—a trend as old as time. But what a beautiful day to fade this classic narrative.

Oregon is coming off a disappointing road loss to Minnesota, falling 77-69 to the Golden Gophers. The Ducks have struggled, losing two of their last five and covering only once in that stretch. Meanwhile, UCLA seems to have found its groove, winning four of its last five, though covering in just two.

This game will come down to who controls the pace. Oregon loves to push the tempo, while UCLA prefers a slower game. The home team typically dictates pace, but the Ducks will fight for a faster style. Oregon has been fantastic on the road this season, ranking top 75 in both offense and defense in true road games. Their biggest red flag has been rebounding on both ends, ranking in the high 200s to low 300s. However, in six games away from home against top 50 teams, they rank 59th in offensive rebounding percentage and 163rd in defensive rebounding percentage. They show up against good opponents.

The Bruins are known for their defense, but they struggle against top 50 teams. In 10 games against such opponents, they rank 203rd in eFG% defense, struggling to defend the perimeter and keeping teams off the line.

Advanced analytics have UCLA winning by around five points. The trend may hold tonight, but coming off an embarrassing road loss, I trust the Ducks to at least keep this one within five.