Thursday College Basketball Best Bets | January 2, 2024

Tonight’s college basketball slate is packed with action, featuring marquee matchups and intriguing betting angles. No. 22 Illinois faces No. 9 Oregon in a top-25 showdown, while Memphis heads to Boca Raton to take on FAU in a clash of fast-paced teams. With tight matchups and defensive battles expected, there are plenty of opportunities to find value. Let’s jump into the best bets for the night.

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#21 Memphis vs FAU Best Bet

Can Memphis replicate their win over Ole Miss tonight in Boca Raton?

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Coming off their win over Ole Miss on Saturday, Memphis heads to Boca Raton to face the Florida Atlantic (FAU) Owls. Against the Rebels, the Tigers shot nearly 50% from the field and 37% from deep. Now, they take on their 14th team inside the top 150 this season—a stretch that suggests some regression could be coming soon. The Owls, on the other hand, have not played since December 21, when they lost to Michigan State 86-69, shooting just 4-22 from three. If not for their long layoff, this would feel like the perfect bounce-back spot for FAU, but too much rest can sometimes work against a team.

Both squads like to push the pace, ranking inside the top 100 in tempo. However, in their three home games this season, FAU has played noticeably slower—still top 100, but about 50 spots lower than their usual pace. Memphis also tends to slow things down on the road, sitting 166th in pace per Bart Torvik.

Defensively, Memphis excels against top competition. They rank in the top 90 in adjusted defensive efficiency, effective field goal defense, and two-point defense in road games against top-100 teams. While FAU is highly efficient from three, Memphis is strong enough to limit the deep threat.

Despite Memphis being one of the most underrated teams in the country, their offense struggles with turnovers and blocked shots. They rank inside the bottom 70 in turnover percentage and offensive block percentage. FAU, meanwhile, is excellent at protecting the rim, ranking 39th in block percentage at home this season.

The biggest question is whether FAU can defend Memphis from beyond the arc. FAU is among the worst in the nation at defending the three, ranking seventh worst, while Memphis boasts the ninth-best three-point percentage. A key advantage for FAU, though, is that Memphis is not overly reliant on threes, ranking 267th in three-point rate nationally.

With Memphis playing so well against top competition this season, they may be due for a letdown after the gauntlet of non-conference tests and their big win over Ole Miss. Meanwhile, FAU has been sitting on a tough loss to Michigan State, with nearly two weeks to stew over it. Expect offensive rust on both sides while the defenses take center stage.

Under.

Best Bet: Full Game Under 164 on BetOnline

#22 Illinois vs #9 Oregon Best Bet

How will the Ducks handle the Fighting Illini tonight?

Arguably the game of the night from the college basketball slate, No. 22 Illinois takes on No. 9 Oregon. Both teams are coming off dominant performances on Sunday. Illinois crushed Chicago State by 53 points, while Oregon blew out Weber State by 40. Now, Illinois faces a tough task, traveling to the West Coast to take on a top-10 team after playing the fifth-worst. Meanwhile, Oregon steps up to a top-25 opponent after taking on a team ranked in the high 200s.

The Fighting Illini shot an incredible 62.1% from the floor and 45.5% from deep in their last game—numbers that are clearly unsustainable. Sure, they lit up what felt like your little brother’s junior varsity squad, but now they have to replicate that against a top-20 defense. The same goes for Oregon, who shot 55% from the field and 40.9% from three against Weber State. Now, they have to try and produce those numbers against a top-10 defense.

Despite the faster tempos both teams play, this should stay tight, as both boast top-20 defenses. These teams have been holding opponents under 70 points per game all season and are tied in points allowed per game. For Illinois, though, that number jumps to over 80 on the road—but they have only played four games away from home.

With this being the start of conference play, both teams should be locked in and ready to go. The travel factor is a concern for Illinois, as they are making a cross-country trip. Going all out in a tune-up game to close non-conference play is not exactly encouraging when projecting points in this matchup. Both defenses are elite and should be able to keep scoring to a minimum, even with the faster pace.