#15 Texas Tech vs. #1 Purdue Picks and Predictions: Baha Mar Championship

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Braden Smith and Purdue take on Texas Tech tonight - Texas Tech Purdue Picks

Both the Red Raiders and Boilermakers are down in the Bahamas and won their first game yesterday of this Baha Mar tournament. Matt Painter’s top ranked Purdue squad handled business against the Memphis Tigers, beating them 80-71 to kick off this four team competition. After that, Texas Tech and JT Toppin squeaked by Wake Forest. The No. 15 Red Raiders pulled out a one point win over the Demon Deacons to set a date with Purdue in the tournament championship. Let’s get into our favorite picks to see who wins!

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#15 Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. #1 Purdue Boilermakers NCAA Basketball Insights

JT Toppin and Texas Tech face Purdue in the Baha Mar Championship tonight in Nassau - Texas Tech Purdue Picks

JT Toppin and Texas Tech face Purdue in the Baha Mar Championship tonight in Nassau

Both of these teams have already been tested away from home. The Red Raiders had to take on the Illinois Fighting Illini in Champaign, losing 81-77 despite 35 points from Toppin. They shot just 27% from beyond the arc, and shot only four free throws, compared to the Illini’s 23 total attempts. But that’s a close loss to a very good team on the road.

Purdue had to go to Tuscaloosa where they upset the Alabama Crimson Tide. The Boilermakers dominated the glass, winning the rebounding battle 52-28, while they let their hosts shoot all the threes they wanted. Braden Smith and the Boilermakers shot 23 free throws compared to the Tide’s 10, and had just seven offensive rebounds compared to the Boilermakers’ 19. It was utter domination from Purdue. Can they do the same against Texas Tech in the Bahamas tonight?

Matchup Information – Texas Tech vs. Purdue – November 21

  • Venue & Location: Baha Mar Convention Center (Nassau, Bahamas)
  • Date: Friday, November 21, 2025
  • Kick Off: 9:30 p.m. Eastern
  • Broadcast: CBS Sports Network

Texas Tech vs. Purdue Betting Odds

Odds are courtesy of BetOnline, one of our favorite online sportsbooks, as of November 21, 2025 at 10:34 a.m. eastern. Sign up today with Promo Code BNBOL55 for a 55% deposit bonus. BetOnline offers a wide variety of unique markets across nearly every sport imaginable.

Spread

  • Texas Tech +3.5 (-114)
  • Purdue -3.5 (-106)

Moneyline

  • Texas Tech +140
  • Purdue -160

Total

  • Over 153.5 (-115)
  • Under 153.5 (-105)

My gut tells me this goes under, just because we have two slow, very good defensive teams. Sure, both offenses are lights out as well, but I see this game being extremely slow. Purdue averages just 68.4 possessions per game and only had 69 against the second fastest team in the country. Texas Tech averages 71.8, but I trust the experienced Purdue team to control the pace of the game.

#15 Texas Tech vs. #1 Purdue NCAA Basketball Picks and Predictions

Fletcher Loyer leads Purdue with 17.6 points per game this season, shooting 48.6% from beyond the arc - Texas Tech Purdue Picks

Fletcher Loyer leads Purdue with 17.6 points per game this season, shooting 48.6% from beyond the arc

Texas Tech vs. Purdue Prediction: Purdue Wins and Covers, Under 153.5

Best Bet: Purdue -3.5 (-106) BetOnline

The Red Raiders shoot a ton of threes, ranking top 50 in 3P rate offense. They do so at a 37.3% clip, which is top 75 in the country, but we saw that be the demise of Alabama when they played Purdue. The Boilermakers are fine giving up plenty of threes, as they know they can make up for it on the offensive end. Despite ranking bottom 30 in 3P rate defense, Purdue is top 120 in 3P percentage defense, meaning they at least do a good job of contesting shots from deep. The Boilermakers also rank No. 11 in free throw rate defense, so I doubt the Red Raiders shoot that many free throws, considering they are north of 270 in FT Rate.

Purdue’s offense is led by three experienced seniors, and those guys are surrounded by plenty of other talent. Matt Painter’s team ranks No. 1 in adjusted offensive efficiency, and are top 40 in taking care of the ball and top 15 in crashing the offensive glass. I trust this mature squad to keep cruising, even against one of the toughest teams in the Big 12.

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