Southern Utah vs Eastern Kentucky Basketball Prediction & Picks

If you like scoring, the first of tonight’s College Basketball Invitational semifinals should be for you as Southern Utah and Eastern Kentucky will face off at Ocean Center in Daytona Beach, Florida (7:00 pm ET, ESPN2).

The Thunderbirds (24-12), the tournament’s #4 seed, are in the semis after wins over #13 seed North Alabama and #12 seed Rice.

The Colonels (22-13), who are the #8 seed, are in the semis thanks to wins over #9 seed Cleveland State and #1 seed Indiana State, both in overtime.

Who will move on to face either Charlotte or Radford in tomorrow’s championship game? Read on for our Southern Utah vs Eastern Kentucky prediction and picks.

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Southern Utah vs Eastern Kentucky

Odds are via BetOnline as of Tuesday, March 21, 2023.

Spread

Southern Utah -4.5 (-114)
Eastern Kentucky +4.5 (-106)

Over/Under

Over 152.5 (-114)
Under 152.5 (-106)

Moneyline

Southern Utah -188
Eastern Kentucky +155

Will Southern Utah End Eastern Kentucky’s Run?

Entering tonight’s semifinal showdown with SUU, EKU has covered in five straight games and eight of their last ten.

That ATS success is actually not new for the Colonels, who have one of the best ATS records in college basketball this season. They are 21-10-1 ATS this season, with their 67.7% success rate bettered by only Utah Valley State (23-9-0, 71.9%), Cal State Fullerton (20-9-1, 69.0%), and Pittsburgh (24-11-1, 68.6%).

Their ATS record includes a 12-4-0 mark as an underdog, which is also one of the higher success rates in college basketball. Only eight teams have covered at a higher rate as an underdog than Eastern Kentucky.

With Southern Utah’s records factored in, he numbers line up rather favorably for SUU to win straight up and EKU to cover. The Thunderbirds are 16-5 SU as a favorite this season, but they are only 11-11-0 ATS in that scenario, including 2-4-0 in their last six games as a favorite.

That might make it hard to back to Southern Utah even if you expect them to win, as there is no value with the moneyline.

There are a lot fewer hairs to split about the over, however. Both of these teams play fast, though Southern Utah is far more efficient and accurate than Eastern Kentucky.

Offensive Statistics & Metrics for Southern Utah & Eastern Kentucky

Stats & Metrics for SUU and EKU

Southern Utah

PPG: 82.2 (5th in Division I)
FG%: 46.5% (66th)
Offensive Efficiency (KenPom): 98th
Adjusted Tempo (KenPom): 16th

Eastern Kentucky

PPG: 78.1 (tied for 35th in Division I)
FG%: 43.9% (226th)
Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (KenPom): 186th
Adjusted Tempo (KenPom): 44th

Eastern Kentucky leads Division I in shot attempts per game (67.0), but they don’t shoot the ball well, including from the foul line. That is part of why the over is only 13-18-1 in their games against Division I opposition this season, but the over has hit in each of their last three games.

Southern Utah is certainly no Gonzaga (the nation’s leader in field-goal percentage). But there are 73 programs in Division I that average 60 or more shot attempts per game, and only 15 have an equal or superior shooting percentage.

Defensively, Southern Utah has given up 70 or more points 24 times in 32 games against Division I opposition this season.

That includes 19 instances of 75+ points being allowed and 13 of 80+ points being allowed. So, it’s no surprise then that the over is 18-14-0 in those 32 games against D-I opposition, including 5-2-0 in their last seven games.

Southern Utah vs Eastern Kentucky Prediction and Picks

Prediction for Southern Utah vs Eastern Kentucky: Southern Utah to win

Picks for Southern Utah vs Eastern Kentucky: SUU/EKU over (Best Value: over 152 @ Bovada Sportsbook) & Southern Utah team total over (Best Value: over 77.5 @ BetOnline)

I’m staying away from a side here, but I really like both of these total plays.

Southern Utah has scored 78 or more points 18 times against D-I opposition this season, and in those 18 games, the over is 15-3-0. So, if their team total over hits, the game over likely will as well.

Where to Bet on Southern Utah vs Eastern Kentucky

Here are four legal sports betting sites that we highly recommend and have reviewed, where you can bet on this year’s NCAA men’s and women’s tournaments, as well as the 2023 NIT.