Rider vs. #2 Houston: Predictions and Insights

Kelvin Sampson and Houston lost last year's National Championship - Big 12 Preview Picks Predictions

College basketball delivers some of the most unpredictable matchups of the season, and tonight’s slate is no exception. The No. 2 team in the country, the Houston Cougars, faces a curious challenge in the Rider Broncos, a squad near the bottom of the rankings.

On paper, this should be a blowout, but Houston is coming off an impressive win over Auburn and has one eye on Syracuse and the Players Era Championship on Monday, raising questions about effort and focus.

Rider has quietly shown flashes of competitiveness, even against top 50 defenses, and possesses strengths that could exploit Houston’s vulnerabilities. Patience, pace, and free throw efficiency will matter more than ever. This game is more than just a tune-up; it is a perfect storm for an underdog to sneak out and cover a massive spread.

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Last 7 Days: 5-9 (-5.28 Units)

2025-26 Season: 18-20 (-3.27 Units)

Rider vs. #2 Houston Odds

Will Houston be motivated enough to cover the 40-point spread?

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Spread

Rider: +40.5 (-105)

Houston: -40.5 (-115)

Total

Over: 134 (-110)

Under: 134 (-110)

Moneyline

Rider: N/A

Houston: N/A

Rider vs. #2 Houston Best Bet

Welcome to the thrilling matchup between the fourth worst team in college basketball taking on the No. 2 team in the country. Coming off their impressive win over Auburn, the Houston Cougars host the Rider Broncos before getting ready to face Syracuse on Monday in the Players Era Championship. The question of the day is simple: does Houston care about this game?

Am I Really Backing Rider?

This is a spot where my back is against the wall and I am being pushed into taking the underdog. Rider against the spread is calling our name, folks. The number continues to climb, opening at 38.5 and now sitting at 41.5 on some books. The Houston Cougars do not care about this game after beating Auburn and with Syracuse on deck. This is simply practice.

The already slow Cougars are matched with another slow team. Houston is currently the fourth slowest team in the country, while Rider sits at 286. Two patient teams going head to head means points will be at a premium. Yes, even more of a premium for the Broncos, but I do not see Houston pushing the pace and blowing out Rider. I see Houston scoring a maximum of 85 points. That leaves a massive ask for Rider to reach roughly 45 points, which is their team total this evening at 45.5.

My initial lean was Rider team total under, but 45.5 is too low for my liking. Most advanced analytics project them around 50 this evening.

The Broncos have already scored 50 plus points against teams inside the top 50. Against Virginia, another slow-paced group, the Broncos put up 53. The Cavaliers are nowhere near the overall talent of Houston, but 53 is still impressive against a top 50 defense. Rider also scored 65 against Texas. One thing the Broncos will have on their side is free throws. They are very efficient from the line, ranked 88th per Bart Torvik. Meanwhile, Houston has struggled with sending guys to the line, currently ranked 240th in free throw rate defense. If the Broncos can get to the line and make their foul shots, this could benefit us tremendously.

Rider will be the worst team Houston has faced so far this season, but with Syracuse coming up in the Players Era Championship on Monday, I think this game serves as prep. The Cougars will ease off in the second half. This will be sweaty, but backing an underdog on a spread north of 40 points sounds like an absolute blast.

I think Rider can hold their own, and by that I mean do everything in their power to avoid losing by 50 while scoring above 45 tonight against a talented and hungry Houston squad.